Blackpool vs Notts County – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Blackpool at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Blackpool vs Notts County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Blackpool and Notts County meet at Bloomfield Road in League One, Regular Season - 41. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 13 April 2027 at 18:45 UTC.
Form
Blackpool (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Blackpool have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Blackpool's home record at Bloomfield Road: 7W 2D 1L from 10 League One appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bloomfield Road.
Notts County's overall League One record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Notts County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Notts County's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Blackpool. A 0.50 PPG lead over Notts County (2.20 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Blackpool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Notts County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackpool 48% versus Notts County 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackpool 50% | Notts County 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackpool 1.89 xG and Notts County 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackpool attack 1.112 / defence 0.832 | Notts County attack 0.986 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.273. Data: 50 Blackpool games / 4 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Blackpool 56% | Draw 25% | Notts County 19%. Fair-value odds: Blackpool 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Notts County 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Blackpool (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Blackpool as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Blackpool 40% | Notts County 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackpool vs Notts County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Bloomfield Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Apr 2027, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackpool 56% | Draw 25% | Notts County 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Blackpool 1.89 / Notts County 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Blackpool attack 1.112 / def 0.832 | Notts County attack 0.986 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Blackpool (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Blackpool xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Notts County xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackpool vs Notts County kick off?
Blackpool vs Notts County is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Tuesday 13 April 2027 at Bloomfield Road.
Where is Blackpool vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at Bloomfield Road.
What competition is Blackpool vs Notts County part of?
Blackpool vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackpool vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Blackpool a 56% chance of winning, Notts County a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Blackpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackpool vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Blackpool and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Blackpool vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackpool and Notts County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Blackpool and Notts County in?
Blackpool (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Notts County (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Blackpool's attack rating (1.11) and Notts County's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Notts County's attack (0.99x) against Blackpool's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 50/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackpool Win
56%
1.79
25%
4.07
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Blackpool xG
Total xG
2.93
1.04
Notts County xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
3%
33.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackpool vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Blackpool and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Blackpool and 1.04 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackpool vs Notts County?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Blackpool's recent record stands at 19W 10D 21L from 50 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Blackpool, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Notts County, meanwhile, have gone 27W 11D 12L across 50 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Notts County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Notts County by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Blackpool heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Blackpool have managed 13W 6D 5L from 24 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.34 PPG overall — Blackpool are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Notts County's away record stands at 12W 5D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Blackpool are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.62 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 50 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackpool
Early Season
Notts County
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackpool and Notts County in coming into this match?
Blackpool have gone 19W 10D 21L in their last 50 games (1.34 PPG), while Notts County have gone 27W 11D 12L in their last 50 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackpool at home or Notts County away?
Blackpool's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackpool at home: 1.88 PPG; Notts County away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Blackpool or Notts County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Blackpool have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Notts County in 32%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Blackpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackpool 50%, Notts County 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Blackpool) and 50% (Notts County).
On the defensive side: Blackpool keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackpool home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackpool play Notts County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Blackpool's recent matches and 50% of Notts County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Blackpool vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Blackpool's recent games and 50% of Notts County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackpool and Notts County tend to score early?
Blackpool have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Notts County in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.