Blackpool 1-0 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Blackpool at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Blackpool vs Fleetwood Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Blackpool and Fleetwood Town meet at Bloomfield Road in League One, Regular Season - 40. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 9 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Blackpool's overall League One record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Blackpool's home record at Bloomfield Road: 6W 4D 0L from 10 League One appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bloomfield Road. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Blackpool are significantly better at Bloomfield Road than their overall form suggests.
Fleetwood Town have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Fleetwood Town have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Blackpool's favour (1.70 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Blackpool, 0 for Fleetwood Town and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Blackpool — key trading statistics (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Fleetwood Town — key trading statistics (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackpool 44% versus Fleetwood Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackpool 47% | Fleetwood Town 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackpool 1.78 xG and Fleetwood Town 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackpool attack 1.072 / defence 0.757 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.903 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.173. Fleetwood Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Blackpool's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Blackpool's defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Blackpool games / 87 Fleetwood Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Blackpool 60% | Draw 23% | Fleetwood Town 16%. Fair-value odds: Blackpool 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Fleetwood Town 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Blackpool (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Blackpool are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Blackpool 40% | Fleetwood Town 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackpool vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Bloomfield Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackpool 60% | Draw 23% | Fleetwood Town 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 46% | xG Blackpool 1.78 / Fleetwood Town 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Blackpool attack 1.072 / def 0.757 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.903 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Blackpool (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Blackpool xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Fleetwood Town xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackpool vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Blackpool vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 9 April 2024 at Bloomfield Road.
What was the final score in Blackpool vs Fleetwood Town?
Blackpool 1 - 0 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Blackpool vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at Bloomfield Road.
What competition is Blackpool vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Blackpool vs Fleetwood Town is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackpool vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Blackpool a 60% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Blackpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackpool vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Blackpool and Fleetwood Town will score (BTTS).
Will Blackpool vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackpool and Fleetwood Town?
Record (1 meetings): Blackpool 0W | Draws 1 | Fleetwood Town 0W.
What form are Blackpool and Fleetwood Town in?
Blackpool (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Fleetwood Town (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Blackpool's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Fleetwood Town's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. Flip it around — Fleetwood Town's attack (0.90x) against Blackpool's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 42/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackpool Win
60%
1.65
23%
4.32
16%
6.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Blackpool xG
Total xG
2.58
0.80
Fleetwood Town xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
6.10
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
3%
36.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackpool vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Blackpool and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Blackpool and 0.80 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackpool vs Fleetwood Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Blackpool come into this having played 87 games, going 28W 21D 38L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Fleetwood Town sit at 1.06 PPG from 87 outings (21W 29D 37L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Blackpool against 1.06 for Fleetwood Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Blackpool's home form reads 17W 12D 14L across 43 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Fleetwood Town have taken 1.07 points per game from 43 outings (10W 16D 17L).
Attack vs Defence
Blackpool are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.09 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 87 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackpool
Current Season
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackpool and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Blackpool have gone 28W 21D 38L in their last 87 games (1.21 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 21W 29D 37L in their last 87 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackpool at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Blackpool's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackpool at home: 1.47 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Blackpool
1
Draws
0
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackpool and Fleetwood Town?
From 2 meetings on record, Blackpool have won 1, Fleetwood Town have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Blackpool and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2024, when Blackpool 1-0 Fleetwood Town.
Who has won more matches between Blackpool and Fleetwood Town?
Blackpool have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Blackpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackpool 49%, Fleetwood Town 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Blackpool) and 51% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Blackpool keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Blackpool have failed to score in 30% of games; Fleetwood Town in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackpool home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackpool play Fleetwood Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Blackpool's recent matches and 60% of Fleetwood Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Blackpool vs Fleetwood Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Blackpool's recent games and 51% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackpool and Fleetwood Town tend to score early?
Blackpool have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Fleetwood Town in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Blackpool edge out Fleetwood Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackpool beat Fleetwood Town 1-0 at Bloomfield Road, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackpool 1.78 xG and Fleetwood Town 0.80 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fleetwood Town landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackpool attack 1.07 / defence 0.76 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.90 / defence 1.26, drawn from 42/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackpool 60% | Draw 23% | Fleetwood Town 16%, with Blackpool to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackpool 47%, Fleetwood Town 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackpool's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackpool 1.21 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackpool win broke the near-deadlock. Blackpool (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.