Barnsley 0-0 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Barnsley at 40% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Barnsley vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Barnsley host Burton Albion at Oakwell in League One (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 1 February 2025 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Barnsley — last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Barnsley have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Burton Albion have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Burton Albion's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Barnsley at 1.50 PPG versus Burton Albion's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Barnsley: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 1 for Burton Albion, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Barnsley 2–1 Burton Albion — a Barnsley win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Barnsley and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Barnsley in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Barnsley 70% versus Burton Albion 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Barnsley 69% | Burton Albion 49%). Note also that Burton Albion surrender HT leads in 39% of cases while Barnsley recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Barnsley 1.30 xG and Burton Albion 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Barnsley attack 1.017 / defence 1.170 | Burton Albion attack 0.838 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.192. Data: built from Barnsley's last 74 games and Burton Albion's last 74.
Result probabilities: Barnsley 40% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 33%. Fair-value odds: Barnsley 2.52 | Draw 3.69 | Burton Albion 3.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Barnsley at 40% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Barnsley 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Barnsley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Barnsley 50% (last 10 home games) | Burton Albion 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Barnsley vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, matchday 30 | Venue: Oakwell • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Barnsley 40% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Barnsley 1.30 / Burton Albion 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Barnsley attack 1.017 / def 1.170 | Burton Albion attack 0.838 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Barnsley (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Barnsley xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Burton Albion xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Barnsley vs Burton Albion FAQs
What time does Barnsley vs Burton Albion kick off?
Barnsley vs Burton Albion kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Oakwell.
What was the final score in Barnsley vs Burton Albion?
Barnsley 0 - 0 Burton Albion.
Where is Barnsley vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Oakwell.
What competition is Barnsley vs Burton Albion part of?
Barnsley vs Burton Albion is a League One fixture (matchday 30) (England).
Who is favourite to win Barnsley vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Barnsley a 40% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Barnsley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Barnsley vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Barnsley and Burton Albion will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Barnsley vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Barnsley's attack rating (1.02) and Burton Albion's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Barnsley's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Barnsley's last 74 games and Burton Albion's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Barnsley Win
40%
2.52
27%
3.69
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Barnsley xG
Total xG
2.47
1.17
Burton Albion xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
9%
11.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Barnsley vs Burton Albion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Barnsley vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Barnsley and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Barnsley and 1.17 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Barnsley vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Barnsley's recent record stands at 33W 18D 23L from 74 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 17W 19D 38L across 74 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Barnsley by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burton Albion heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Barnsley have managed 12W 12D 12L from their last 36 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 7W 12D 17L across their last 36 away games, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Barnsley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Barnsley are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 0.93 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Barnsley have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Barnsley
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
Barnsley (Home) vs Burton Albion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Barnsley
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Barnsley vs Burton Albion Form FAQs
What form are Barnsley and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Barnsley have gone 33W 18D 23L in their last 74 games (1.58 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 17W 19D 38L in their last 74 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Barnsley at home or Burton Albion away?
Barnsley's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Barnsley at home: 1.33 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2022. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 3 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Barnsley's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Barnsley
2
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Barnsley vs Burton Albion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Barnsley and Burton Albion?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Barnsley have won 5, Burton Albion have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Barnsley and Burton Albion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 April 2026: Burton Albion 1-1 Barnsley.
Who has won more matches between Barnsley and Burton Albion?
Barnsley have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Barnsley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Barnsley 69%, Burton Albion 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Barnsley) and 47% (Burton Albion). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Barnsley home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Barnsley vs Burton Albion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Barnsley and Burton Albion matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Barnsley's games and 47% of Burton Albion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Barnsley and Burton Albion matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Barnsley's matches and 47% of Burton Albion's.
Do Barnsley and Burton Albion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Barnsley's recent matches and 67% of Burton Albion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Barnsley's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Oakwell, Regular Season - 30, as Barnsley and Burton Albion drew 0-0 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Barnsley 1.30 xG and Burton Albion 1.17 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Barnsley fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Burton Albion landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barnsley attack 1.02 / defence 1.17 against Burton Albion attack 0.84 / defence 1.00, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Barnsley 40% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 33%, with Barnsley to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barnsley 69%, Burton Albion 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Barnsley's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Burton Albion's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Barnsley arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Barnsley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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