Accrington ST 0-2 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plymouth (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Accrington ST face Plymouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 26 as Accrington ST welcome Plymouth to Wham Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 March 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Accrington ST — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Wham Stadium, Accrington ST have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all League One games this season, Plymouth have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Plymouth away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Plymouth's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Accrington ST's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Plymouth have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Accrington ST.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with Plymouth winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Plymouth have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Accrington ST in-play and half-time data (82 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (82 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 50% versus Plymouth 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 51% | Plymouth 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.18 xG and Plymouth 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.797 / defence 1.254 | Plymouth attack 1.057 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.124. Accrington ST's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 82 Accrington ST games / 83 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 30% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 44%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Plymouth 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Accrington ST 40% | Plymouth 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Mar 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 30% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Accrington ST 1.18 / Plymouth 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.797 / def 1.254 | Plymouth attack 1.057 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Plymouth xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Plymouth kick off?
Accrington ST vs Plymouth kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 21 March 2023 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Plymouth?
Accrington ST 0 - 2 Plymouth.
Where is Accrington ST vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Plymouth part of?
Accrington ST vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 30% chance of winning, Plymouth a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Accrington ST and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Plymouth?
Record (3 meetings): Accrington ST 0W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 3W.
What form are Accrington ST and Plymouth in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Plymouth (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Accrington ST's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 82/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
30%
3.38
26%
3.78
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.67
1.49
Plymouth xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
7%
15.00
14%
7.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.49 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 82 outings, Accrington ST have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 25W 21D 36L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Plymouth's form line: 46W 19D 17L from 82 games, 1.91 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Plymouth are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Accrington ST.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Accrington ST have posted 1.48 PPG from 40 outings (16W 11D 13L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 15W 14D 11L from 40 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's season.
The Goals Picture
Accrington ST are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.62 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 82 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 25W 21D 36L in their last 82 games (1.17 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 46W 19D 17L in their last 82 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Plymouth away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.48 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Accrington ST or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Accrington ST have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Plymouth in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Accrington ST and Plymouth runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plymouth have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Plymouth won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Accrington ST's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Accrington ST
0
Draws
4
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 0, Plymouth have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2023, when Accrington ST 0-2 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 58%, Plymouth 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Accrington ST) and 52% (Plymouth).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Plymouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Accrington ST's games and 58% of Plymouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Accrington ST vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Accrington ST's recent games and 52% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Plymouth tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Accrington ST 0-2 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.18 xG and Plymouth 1.49 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Accrington ST fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.80 / defence 1.25 against Plymouth attack 1.06 / defence 1.16, drawn from 82/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 30% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 44%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 51%, Plymouth 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plymouth's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.