Accrington ST 2-1 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Lincoln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 45 as Accrington ST welcome Lincoln to Wham Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Accrington ST have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Accrington ST have posted 4W 5D 1L at Wham Stadium — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Accrington ST are significantly better at Wham Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Lincoln — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Lincoln's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Accrington ST at 0.90 PPG versus Lincoln's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Accrington ST, 0 for Lincoln and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Accrington ST winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Accrington ST in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 54% versus Lincoln 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 57% | Lincoln 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.71 xG and Lincoln 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.183 / defence 1.356 | Lincoln attack 0.935 / defence 1.290. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.165. Lincoln bring a strong defensive rating of 1.290 — this is suppressing Accrington ST's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Accrington ST games / 44 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 42% | Draw 26% | Lincoln 32%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Lincoln 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Accrington ST as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Accrington ST offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 80% | Lincoln 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 42% | Draw 26% | Lincoln 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Accrington ST 1.71 / Lincoln 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 1.183 / def 1.356 | Lincoln attack 0.935 / def 1.290 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Lincoln xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Lincoln kick off?
Accrington ST vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Lincoln?
Accrington ST 2 - 1 Lincoln.
Where is Accrington ST vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Lincoln part of?
Accrington ST vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 42% chance of winning, Lincoln a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Accrington ST and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Lincoln?
Record (1 meetings): Accrington ST 1W | Draws 0 | Lincoln 0W.
What form are Accrington ST and Lincoln in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Lincoln (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Accrington ST's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Lincoln's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Lincoln's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
42%
2.39
26%
3.84
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
3.19
1.48
Lincoln xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
10%
10.47
6%
17.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.48 for Lincoln, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Accrington ST's recent record stands at 15W 10D 19L from 44 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Lincoln, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 21L across 44 games — 1.11 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Accrington ST on 1.25 PPG, Lincoln on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Accrington ST have managed 11W 6D 5L from 22 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Accrington ST are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lincoln's away record stands at 7W 5D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Accrington ST come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Accrington ST are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.18 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 44 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Current Season
Lincoln
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 15W 10D 19L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 13W 10D 21L in their last 44 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Lincoln away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.77 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Lincoln won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Accrington ST's record when hosting Lincoln specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Accrington ST
1
Draws
1
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Lincoln?
From 4 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 2, Lincoln have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Accrington ST 0-3 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Lincoln?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Accrington ST at 68%, Lincoln at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Accrington ST) and 54% (Lincoln). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lincoln in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Lincoln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Accrington ST's games and 68% of Lincoln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Accrington ST vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Accrington ST's matches and 54% of Lincoln's.
Do Accrington ST and Lincoln tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Accrington ST edge out Lincoln 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Lincoln 2-1 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.71 xG and Lincoln 1.48 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.18 / defence 1.36 against Lincoln attack 0.94 / defence 1.29, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 42% | Draw 26% | Lincoln 32%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 57%, Lincoln 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Lincoln's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.25 PPG, Lincoln 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.