West Brom 1-1 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Brom at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Brom vs Cardiff fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
West Brom host Cardiff at The Hawthorns in Championship, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 January 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
West Brom — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Brom have posted 6W 4D 0L at The Hawthorns — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — West Brom are significantly better at The Hawthorns than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cardiff stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cardiff have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (West Brom) versus 1.10 (Cardiff). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for West Brom, 0 for Cardiff and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2021, ended 4–0 with West Brom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
West Brom in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cardiff in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 35% versus Cardiff 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 39% | Cardiff 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.59 xG and Cardiff 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 0.987 / defence 0.766 | Cardiff attack 0.956 / defence 1.583. League average goals — home 1.017 / away 1.099. Cardiff bring a strong defensive rating of 1.583 — this is suppressing West Brom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. West Brom's defence rating of 0.766 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 24 West Brom games / 23 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 56% | Draw 25% | Cardiff 19%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Cardiff 5.26. The model has a clear lean to West Brom (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: West Brom 30% | Cardiff 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jan 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 56% | Draw 25% | Cardiff 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG West Brom 1.59 / Cardiff 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 0.987 / def 0.766 | Cardiff attack 0.956 / def 1.583 | league avg home 1.017 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: West Brom (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Cardiff xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Cardiff kick off?
West Brom vs Cardiff kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 January 2022 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Cardiff?
West Brom 1 - 1 Cardiff.
Where is West Brom vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Cardiff part of?
West Brom vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 56% chance of winning, Cardiff a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both West Brom and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Cardiff?
Record (1 meetings): West Brom 1W | Draws 0 | Cardiff 0W.
What form are West Brom and Cardiff in?
West Brom (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Cardiff (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from West Brom's attack rating (0.99) and Cardiff's defence rating (1.58), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus West Brom's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
56%
1.79
25%
3.96
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.39
0.81
Cardiff xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
4%
25.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.7 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are West Brom and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for West Brom and 0.81 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Cardiff?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
West Brom's recent record stands at 11W 7D 5L from 23 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cardiff, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 13L across 23 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours West Brom by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cardiff heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, West Brom have managed 7W 4D 0L from 11 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — West Brom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cardiff's away record stands at 3W 3D 5L across 11 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
West Brom are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.09 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Blended
Cardiff
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Cardiff in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 11W 7D 5L in their last 23 games (1.74 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 6W 4D 13L in their last 23 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Cardiff away?
West Brom's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 2.27 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.09 PPG.
Have West Brom or Cardiff been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Cardiff in 4%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2021, when West Brom won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
West Brom's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
West Brom
5
Draws
0
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Cardiff?
From 8 meetings on record, West Brom have won 3, Cardiff have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Cardiff 0-0 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Cardiff?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
West Brom see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 36%, Cardiff 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (West Brom) and 82% (Cardiff). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Cardiff in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of West Brom's recent matches and 64% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 36% of West Brom's matches and 82% of Cardiff's.
Do West Brom and Cardiff tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
West Brom and Cardiff share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 26, as West Brom and Cardiff drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.59 xG and Cardiff 0.81 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.99 / defence 0.77 against Cardiff attack 0.96 / defence 1.58, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 56% | Draw 25% | Cardiff 19%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 39%, Cardiff 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Cardiff's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.