Swansea 1-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swansea at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Swansea face Hull City.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Swansea and Hull City meet at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship (matchday 43). This fixture gets under way on Friday 18 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Swansea (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Swansea's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hull City's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Hull City's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Swansea against 1.50 for Hull City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Swansea's last 10 home games and Hull City's last 10 away games) — Swansea have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Hull City in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Swansea, 2 for Hull City and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2024, ended Swansea 1–2 Hull City — a Hull City win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Swansea — key trading statistics (last 88 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Hull City — key trading statistics (last 88 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 50% versus Hull City 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 51% | Hull City 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Swansea surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Hull City have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.08 xG and Hull City 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 1.022 / defence 0.962 | Hull City attack 0.876 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 0.993. Data: built from Swansea's last 88 games and Hull City's last 88.
Result probabilities: Swansea 41% | Draw 31% | Hull City 28%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.45 | Draw 3.19 | Hull City 3.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swansea if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 70% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Swansea's last 10 home games and Hull City's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Swansea 30% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 43 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 41% | Draw 31% | Hull City 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Swansea 1.08 / Hull City 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 1.022 / def 0.962 | Hull City attack 0.876 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.264 / away 0.993 • Poisson stance: Swansea (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Hull City xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Swansea vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Swansea vs Hull City kick off?
Swansea vs Hull City kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Friday 18 April 2025 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Hull City?
Swansea 1 - 0 Hull City.
Where is Swansea vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Hull City part of?
Swansea vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 43) (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 41% chance of winning, Hull City a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Swansea and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Swansea vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Swansea's attack rating (1.02) and Hull City's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (0.88x) against Swansea's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from Swansea's last 88 games and Hull City's last 88 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
41%
2.45
31%
3.19
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Swansea xG
Total xG
1.92
0.84
Hull City xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Swansea vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Swansea and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Swansea and 0.84 for Hull City, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 88 outings, Swansea have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 30W 21D 37L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Hull City's form line: 30W 25D 33L from 88 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Swansea against 1.31 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Swansea have posted 1.39 PPG from their last 44 home games (17W 10D 17L).
On the road, Hull City have gone 18W 8D 18L from their last 44 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Swansea are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.24 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 88 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
Swansea (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Swansea
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Swansea vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Swansea and Hull City in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 30W 21D 37L in their last 88 games (1.26 PPG), while Hull City have gone 30W 25D 33L in their last 88 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.39 PPG; Hull City away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Swansea and Hull City, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Swansea won Swansea 3-0 Hull City on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Swansea
4
Draws
3
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Swansea vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Hull City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Swansea have won 3, Hull City have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 January 2026: Hull City 2-1 Swansea.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 39% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 46%, Hull City 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Swansea) and 50% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Hull City in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Swansea vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Swansea and Hull City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Swansea's recent matches and 52% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Swansea and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Swansea's recent games and 50% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Swansea's recent matches and 64% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Swansea edge out Hull City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Hull City 1-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.08 xG and Hull City 0.84 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hull City landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Hull City attack 0.88 / defence 0.83, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 41% | Draw 31% | Hull City 28%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 51%, Hull City 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Hull City's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.26 PPG, Hull City 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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