Swansea 1-0 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Blackburn at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs Blackburn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Blackburn travel to Swansea.com Stadium to take on Swansea. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Swansea have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Swansea.com Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Swansea are significantly better at Swansea.com Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Blackburn — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Blackburn away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Blackburn's 2.30 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Swansea's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Swansea, 1 for Blackburn and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Blackburn winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Swansea trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Blackburn trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 44% versus Blackburn 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 48% | Blackburn 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 0.87 xG and Blackburn 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.900 / defence 1.178 | Blackburn attack 0.732 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.037 / away 1.128. Data: 27 Swansea games / 29 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 31% | Draw 32% | Blackburn 37%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Blackburn 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Blackburn as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Blackburn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 40% | Blackburn 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 31% | Draw 32% | Blackburn 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Swansea 0.87 / Blackburn 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.900 / def 1.178 | Blackburn attack 0.732 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.037 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Blackburn xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Blackburn kick off?
Swansea vs Blackburn kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Blackburn?
Swansea 1 - 0 Blackburn.
Where is Swansea vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Blackburn part of?
Swansea vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 31% chance of winning, Blackburn a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Swansea and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Blackburn?
Record (1 meetings): Swansea 0W | Draws 0 | Blackburn 1W.
What form are Swansea and Blackburn in?
Swansea (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Blackburn (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Swansea's attack at 0.90x the league average against Blackburn's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
31%
3.21
32%
3.09
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Swansea xG
Total xG
1.84
0.97
Blackburn xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.50
15%
6.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 15.4 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Swansea and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Swansea and 0.97 for Blackburn, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swansea come into this having played 27 games, going 8W 8D 11L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Blackburn sit at 1.81 PPG from 27 outings (14W 7D 6L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Blackburn carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Swansea — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Swansea's home form reads 5W 4D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Blackburn have taken 1.46 points per game from 13 outings (5W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.56 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Blackburn in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 8W 8D 11L in their last 27 games (1.19 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 14W 7D 6L in their last 27 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Blackburn away?
Swansea's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.46 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Swansea or Blackburn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Blackburn in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 20 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Swansea have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Blackburn won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swansea's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Swansea
0
Draws
4
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Blackburn?
From 10 meetings on record, Swansea have won 6, Blackburn have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2026, when Swansea 3-1 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Blackburn?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 38%, Blackburn 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Swansea) and 31% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Blackburn in 38%; Swansea have failed to score in 31% of games; Blackburn in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Swansea's recent matches and 46% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Swansea's recent games and 31% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Blackburn tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat Blackburn 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Blackburn 1-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 0.87 xG and Blackburn 0.97 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Blackburn landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.90 / defence 1.18 against Blackburn attack 0.73 / defence 0.93, drawn from 27/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 31% | Draw 32% | Blackburn 37%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 48%, Blackburn 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Blackburn's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Blackburn arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Swansea winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.