Sunderland 1-2 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs West Brom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadium of Light plays host to Sunderland versus West Brom in Championship, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Monday 12 December 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Sunderland (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadium of Light this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
West Brom have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Sunderland against 1.30 for West Brom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
West Brom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 52% versus West Brom 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 54% | West Brom 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.11 xG and West Brom 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.965 / defence 0.992 | West Brom attack 0.960 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.134. Data: 21 Sunderland games / 66 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 36% | Draw 29% | West Brom 35%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | West Brom 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sunderland 40% | West Brom 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Monday 12 Dec 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 36% | Draw 29% | West Brom 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Sunderland 1.11 / West Brom 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.965 / def 0.992 | West Brom attack 0.960 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.08
West Brom xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs West Brom kick off?
Sunderland vs West Brom kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 12 December 2022 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs West Brom?
Sunderland 1 - 2 West Brom.
Where is Sunderland vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs West Brom part of?
Sunderland vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 36% chance of winning, West Brom a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sunderland and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and West Brom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sunderland and West Brom in?
Sunderland (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. West Brom (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (0.96) and West Brom's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — West Brom's attack (0.96x) against Sunderland's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 21/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
36%
2.77
29%
3.42
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.19
1.08
West Brom xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
11%
8.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.1 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sunderland and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.08 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sunderland's recent record stands at 31W 19D 16L from 66 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Brom, meanwhile, have gone 23W 21D 22L across 66 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Sunderland against 1.36 for West Brom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 18W 7D 7L from 32 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
West Brom's away record stands at 8W 9D 15L across 32 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.15 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; West Brom in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
West Brom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and West Brom in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 31W 19D 16L in their last 66 games (1.70 PPG), while West Brom have gone 23W 21D 22L in their last 66 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or West Brom away?
Sunderland's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.91 PPG; West Brom away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Sunderland or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, West Brom in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against West Brom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sunderland
1
Draws
1
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and West Brom?
From 6 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 4, West Brom have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when West Brom 0-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and West Brom?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 47%, West Brom 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sunderland) and 38% (West Brom).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; West Brom in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play West Brom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sunderland's recent matches and 41% of West Brom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sunderland's recent games and 38% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and West Brom tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, West Brom in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as West Brom defy the odds to beat Sunderland 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat Sunderland 1-2 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 22, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.11 xG and West Brom 1.08 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. West Brom outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against West Brom attack 0.96 / defence 0.94, drawn from 21/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 36% | Draw 29% | West Brom 35%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual West Brom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 54%, West Brom 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
West Brom's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.70 PPG, West Brom 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. West Brom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.