Sunderland 0-1 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Swansea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sunderland and Swansea meet at Stadium of Light in Championship, Regular Season - 42. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sunderland's overall Championship record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sunderland's home record at Stadium of Light: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Championship appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Swansea (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Swansea's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Sunderland 1W, Swansea 3W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 3–2 with Sunderland winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 46% versus Swansea 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 46% | Swansea 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.54 xG and Swansea 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.021 / defence 0.943 | Swansea attack 0.889 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 0.991. Data: 87 Sunderland games / 87 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 54% | Draw 26% | Swansea 20%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Swansea 5.00. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sunderland 60% | Swansea 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 54% | Draw 26% | Swansea 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Sunderland 1.54 / Swansea 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.021 / def 0.943 | Swansea attack 0.889 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.294 / away 0.991 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Swansea xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Swansea kick off?
Sunderland vs Swansea kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Swansea?
Sunderland 0 - 1 Swansea.
Where is Sunderland vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Swansea part of?
Sunderland vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 54% chance of winning, Swansea a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sunderland and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Swansea?
Record (5 meetings): Sunderland 1W | Draws 1 | Swansea 3W.
What form are Sunderland and Swansea in?
Sunderland (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Swansea (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sunderland's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Swansea's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Swansea's attack (0.89x) against Sunderland's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 87/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.90
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.37
0.83
Swansea xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
4%
23.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.83 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sunderland's recent record stands at 37W 21D 29L from 87 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Swansea, meanwhile, have gone 29W 21D 37L across 87 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Sunderland against 1.24 for Swansea. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 22W 9D 12L from 43 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Swansea's away record stands at 12W 11D 20L across 43 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.18 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 87 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Swansea in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 37W 21D 29L in their last 87 games (1.52 PPG), while Swansea have gone 29W 21D 37L in their last 87 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Swansea away?
Sunderland's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.74 PPG; Swansea away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Swansea in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Swansea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sunderland
1
Draws
4
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Swansea?
From 6 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 1, Swansea have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Sunderland 0-1 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 46%, Swansea 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Sunderland) and 56% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sunderland have failed to score in 26% of games; Swansea in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sunderland's recent matches and 56% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Sunderland's recent games and 56% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Swansea tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Swansea in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat Sunderland 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Sunderland 0-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.54 xG and Swansea 0.83 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against Swansea attack 0.89 / defence 1.17, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 54% | Draw 26% | Swansea 20%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Swansea win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 46%, Swansea 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Swansea's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.52 PPG, Swansea 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.