Sunderland 0-1 Swansea – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sunderland at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sunderland face Swansea.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sunderland and Swansea meet at Stadium of Light in Championship (matchday 42). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sunderland's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sunderland's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Swansea (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Swansea's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Swansea edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2024, ended Sunderland 3–2 Swansea — a Sunderland win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (last 87 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (last 87 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 46% versus Swansea 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 46% | Swansea 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.54 xG and Swansea 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.021 / defence 0.943 | Swansea attack 0.889 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 0.991. Data: built from Sunderland's last 87 games and Swansea's last 87.
Result probabilities: Sunderland 54% | Draw 26% | Swansea 20%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 1.85 | Draw 3.90 | Swansea 4.95. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sunderland 60% (last 10 home games) | Swansea 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, matchday 42 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 54% | Draw 26% | Swansea 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Sunderland 1.54 / Swansea 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.021 / def 0.943 | Swansea attack 0.889 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.294 / away 0.991 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Swansea xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sunderland vs Swansea FAQs
What time does Sunderland vs Swansea kick off?
Sunderland vs Swansea kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Swansea?
Sunderland 0 - 1 Swansea.
Where is Sunderland vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Swansea part of?
Sunderland vs Swansea is a Championship fixture (matchday 42) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 54% chance of winning, Swansea a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sunderland and Swansea will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Sunderland vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sunderland's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Swansea's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Swansea's attack (0.89x) against Sunderland's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Sunderland's last 87 games and Swansea's last 87 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.90
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.37
0.83
Swansea xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
4%
23.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sunderland vs Swansea Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.83 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sunderland's recent record stands at 37W 21D 29L from 87 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Swansea, meanwhile, have gone 29W 21D 37L across 87 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Sunderland against 1.24 for Swansea. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 22W 9D 12L from their last 43 home games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Swansea's away record stands at 12W 11D 20L across their last 43 away games, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.18 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 87 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
Sunderland (Home) vs Swansea (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sunderland
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
❓ Sunderland vs Swansea Form FAQs
What form are Sunderland and Swansea in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 37W 21D 29L in their last 87 games (1.52 PPG), while Swansea have gone 29W 21D 37L in their last 87 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Swansea away?
Sunderland's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.74 PPG; Swansea away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Swansea in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Swansea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sunderland
1
Draws
4
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Sunderland vs Swansea H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Swansea?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sunderland have won 1, Swansea have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Swansea last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2025: Sunderland 0-1 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 46%, Swansea 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Sunderland) and 56% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sunderland have failed to score in 26% of games; Swansea in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sunderland vs Swansea Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sunderland and Swansea matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sunderland's recent matches and 56% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sunderland and Swansea matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Sunderland's recent games and 56% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Swansea matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Sunderland's recent matches and 77% of Swansea's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat Sunderland 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Sunderland 0-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.54 xG and Swansea 0.83 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against Swansea attack 0.89 / defence 1.17, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 54% | Draw 26% | Swansea 20%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Swansea win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 46%, Swansea 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Swansea's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.52 PPG, Swansea 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 42
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →