Sunderland 0-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sunderland vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
QPR make the trip to Stadium of Light to face Sunderland in Championship, Regular Season - 46. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 May 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sunderland have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sunderland have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadium of Light — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
QPR's overall Championship record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, QPR have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Sunderland against 0.90 for QPR. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sunderland, 0 for QPR and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (91 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (91 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 45% versus QPR 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 45% | QPR 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.20 xG and QPR 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.872 / defence 0.968 | QPR attack 1.050 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.004. Data: 91 Sunderland games / 91 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 40% | Draw 29% | QPR 31%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | QPR 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sunderland are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sunderland 40% | QPR 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 40% | Draw 29% | QPR 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Sunderland 1.20 / QPR 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.872 / def 0.968 | QPR attack 1.050 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.004 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.02
QPR xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs QPR kick off?
Sunderland vs QPR kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs QPR?
Sunderland 0 - 1 QPR.
Where is Sunderland vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs QPR part of?
Sunderland vs QPR is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 40% chance of winning, QPR a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sunderland and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and QPR?
Record (5 meetings): Sunderland 2W | Draws 3 | QPR 0W.
What form are Sunderland and QPR in?
Sunderland (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. QPR (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (0.87) and QPR's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — QPR's attack (1.05x) against Sunderland's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 91/91 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
40%
2.50
29%
3.47
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.22
1.02
QPR xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
9%
10.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sunderland and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.02 for QPR, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sunderland come into this having played 91 games, going 37W 21D 33L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, QPR sit at 1.20 PPG from 91 outings (28W 25D 38L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Sunderland against 1.20 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sunderland's home form reads 22W 9D 14L across 45 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, QPR have taken 1.18 points per game from 45 outings (14W 11D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.09 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 91 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and QPR in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 37W 21D 33L in their last 91 games (1.45 PPG), while QPR have gone 28W 25D 38L in their last 91 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or QPR away?
Sunderland's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.67 PPG; QPR away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Sunderland or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, QPR in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sunderland won 0-3 on 14 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sunderland
3
Draws
1
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and QPR?
From 6 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 2, QPR have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Sunderland 0-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and QPR?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
QPR see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 44%, QPR 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Sunderland) and 42% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sunderland have failed to score in 29% of games; QPR in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sunderland's recent matches and 47% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Sunderland's recent games and 42% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and QPR tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, QPR in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as QPR defy the odds to beat Sunderland 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Sunderland 0-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 46, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.20 xG and QPR 1.02 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.87 / defence 0.97 against QPR attack 1.05 / defence 1.05, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 40% | Draw 29% | QPR 31%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 45%, QPR 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
QPR's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.45 PPG, QPR 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. QPR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.