Sunderland 0-1 Leicester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Leicester at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sunderland vs Leicester encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Leicester make the trip to Stadium of Light to face Sunderland in Championship, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Tuesday 5 March 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Sunderland (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sunderland at Stadium of Light this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sunderland are significantly better at Stadium of Light than their overall form suggests.
Leicester's overall Championship record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Leicester have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Leicester are 0.60 PPG clear of Sunderland in recent Championship fixtures (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sunderland have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Leicester in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sunderland lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Leicester winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Sunderland — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Leicester — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 58% versus Leicester 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 53% | Leicester 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.50 xG and Leicester 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.098 / defence 1.005 | Leicester attack 1.351 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.260. Leicester have an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 81 Sunderland games / 35 Leicester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 34% | Draw 23% | Leicester 43%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Leicester 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Leicester as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leicester if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 60% | Leicester 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Leicester | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 34% | Draw 23% | Leicester 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Sunderland 1.50 / Leicester 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.098 / def 1.005 | Leicester attack 1.351 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Leicester (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Leicester xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Leicester kick off?
Sunderland vs Leicester kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 5 March 2024 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Leicester?
Sunderland 0 - 1 Leicester.
Where is Sunderland vs Leicester being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Leicester part of?
Sunderland vs Leicester is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Leicester?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 34% chance of winning, Leicester a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Leicester?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Sunderland and Leicester will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Leicester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Leicester?
Record (1 meetings): Sunderland 0W | Draws 0 | Leicester 1W.
What form are Sunderland and Leicester in?
Sunderland (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Leicester (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (1.10) and Leicester's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Leicester's attack (1.35x) against Sunderland's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 81/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
34%
2.95
23%
4.30
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Sunderland xG
Total xG
3.21
1.71
Leicester xG
2.95
34%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
6%
16.35
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.71 for Leicester, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Leicester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sunderland come into this having played 73 games, going 29W 17D 27L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Leicester sit at 1.53 PPG from 73 outings (34W 10D 29L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Sunderland against 1.53 for Leicester. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sunderland's home form reads 17W 6D 13L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Leicester have taken 1.47 points per game from 36 outings (16W 5D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Sunderland are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Leicester are on 1.67 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Leicester
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Leicester in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 29W 17D 27L in their last 73 games (1.42 PPG), while Leicester have gone 34W 10D 29L in their last 73 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Leicester away?
Sunderland's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.58 PPG; Leicester away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sunderland
0
Draws
2
Leicester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Leicester?
From 2 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 0, Leicester have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Leicester last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2024, when Sunderland 0-1 Leicester.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Leicester?
Leicester have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Sunderland, 67% for Leicester — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sunderland and 64% for Leicester. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Leicester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Leicester?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sunderland's games and 67% of Leicester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sunderland vs Leicester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sunderland's matches and 64% of Leicester's.
Do Sunderland and Leicester tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Leicester in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Leicester edge out Sunderland 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leicester beat Sunderland 0-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.50 xG and Leicester 1.71 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.10 / defence 1.00 against Leicester attack 1.35 / defence 1.00, drawn from 81/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 34% | Draw 23% | Leicester 43%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 53%, Leicester 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Leicester's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.42 PPG, Leicester 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leicester win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward. Leicester (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.