Sunderland 2-4 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 35%, yet in-form Burnley provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sunderland vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sunderland and Burnley meet at Stadium of Light in Championship, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sunderland's overall Championship record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sunderland have posted 4W 5D 1L at Stadium of Light — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadium of Light. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sunderland are significantly better at Stadium of Light than their overall form suggests.
Burnley (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 Championship outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Burnley have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Burnley arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 51% versus Burnley 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 51% | Burnley 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.00 xG and Burnley 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.843 / defence 0.871 | Burnley attack 1.037 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.107. Data: 15 Sunderland games / 15 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 35% | Draw 31% | Burnley 34%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Burnley 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Burnley (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sunderland 40% | Burnley 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 35% | Draw 31% | Burnley 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Sunderland 1.00 / Burnley 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.843 / def 0.871 | Burnley attack 1.037 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Burnley xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Burnley kick off?
Sunderland vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Burnley?
Sunderland 2 - 4 Burnley.
Where is Sunderland vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Burnley part of?
Sunderland vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 35% chance of winning, Burnley a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sunderland and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Burnley?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sunderland and Burnley in?
Sunderland (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Burnley (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sunderland's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (1.04x) against Sunderland's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
35%
2.88
31%
3.25
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.00
1.00
Burnley xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
13%
7.83
13%
7.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.00 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Sunderland have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 23W 17D 13L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley's form line: 13W 22D 18L from 53 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sunderland are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sunderland have posted 1.88 PPG from 26 outings (14W 7D 5L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 5W 12D 9L from 26 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.11 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Burnley in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 23W 17D 13L in their last 53 games (1.62 PPG), while Burnley have gone 13W 22D 18L in their last 53 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Burnley away?
Sunderland's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.88 PPG; Burnley away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Burnley in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sunderland won 3-0 on 2 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sunderland
2
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 2, Burnley have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Sunderland 3-0 Burnley.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 50%, Burnley 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sunderland) and 31% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Burnley in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sunderland's recent matches and 58% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sunderland's recent games and 31% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Burnley tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Burnley in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burnley cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Sunderland.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Sunderland 2-4 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.00 xG and Burnley 1.00 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Sunderland beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burnley outscored their 1.00 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.84 / defence 0.87 against Burnley attack 1.04 / defence 0.92, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 35% | Draw 31% | Burnley 34%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Burnley win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 51%, Burnley 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Burnley's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Burnley winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sunderland (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.