Sunderland 0-0 Bristol City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bristol City at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sunderland vs Bristol City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sunderland and Bristol City meet at Stadium of Light in Championship (matchday 41). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sunderland's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Sunderland at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sunderland are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bristol City (all games): 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Bristol City have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Bristol City are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Sunderland 0–1 Bristol City — a Bristol City win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sunderland — key trading statistics (last 86 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Bristol City — key trading statistics (last 86 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 55% versus Bristol City 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 54% | Bristol City 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.25 xG and Bristol City 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.944 / defence 1.181 | Bristol City attack 0.884 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.223. Data: built from Sunderland's last 86 games and Bristol City's last 86.
Result probabilities: Sunderland 36% | Draw 27% | Bristol City 37%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.77 | Draw 3.73 | Bristol City 2.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bristol City are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bristol City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sunderland 40% (last 10 home games) | Bristol City 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Bristol City | Competition: Championship, matchday 41 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 36% | Draw 27% | Bristol City 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Sunderland 1.25 / Bristol City 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.944 / def 1.181 | Bristol City attack 0.884 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Bristol City (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Bristol City xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sunderland vs Bristol City FAQs
What time does Sunderland vs Bristol City kick off?
Sunderland vs Bristol City kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Bristol City?
Sunderland 0 - 0 Bristol City.
Where is Sunderland vs Bristol City being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Bristol City part of?
Sunderland vs Bristol City is a Championship fixture (matchday 41) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Bristol City?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 36% chance of winning, Bristol City a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bristol City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Bristol City?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sunderland and Bristol City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sunderland vs Bristol City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sunderland's attack at 0.94x the league average against Bristol City's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bristol City's attack (0.88x) against Sunderland's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from Sunderland's last 86 games and Bristol City's last 86 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bristol City Win
36%
2.77
27%
3.73
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.53
1.28
Bristol City xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
11%
9.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sunderland vs Bristol City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Bristol City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Bristol City expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.28 for Bristol City, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Bristol City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sunderland come into this having played 86 games, going 33W 20D 33L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Bristol City sit at 1.30 PPG from 86 outings (30W 22D 34L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Sunderland against 1.30 for Bristol City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sunderland's home form reads 18W 9D 16L across their last 43 home games, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Bristol City have taken 1.12 points per game from their last 43 away games (12W 12D 19L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Bristol City are on 1.15 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 86 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Bristol City
Current Season
Sunderland (Home) vs Bristol City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sunderland
Current Season
Bristol City
Current Season
❓ Sunderland vs Bristol City Form FAQs
What form are Sunderland and Bristol City in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 33W 20D 33L in their last 86 games (1.38 PPG), while Bristol City have gone 30W 22D 34L in their last 86 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Bristol City away?
Sunderland's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.47 PPG; Bristol City away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 18 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 0W 3D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bristol City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sunderland
3
Draws
2
Bristol City
Recent Meetings
❓ Sunderland vs Bristol City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Bristol City?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sunderland have won 1, Bristol City have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Bristol City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2025: Bristol City 2-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Bristol City?
Bristol City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Bristol City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 58%, Bristol City 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Sunderland) and 42% (Bristol City).
On the defensive side: Bristol City in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Bristol City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sunderland vs Bristol City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sunderland and Bristol City matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Sunderland's games and 54% of Bristol City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sunderland and Bristol City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Sunderland's recent games and 42% of Bristol City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Bristol City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Sunderland's recent matches and 65% of Bristol City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sunderland's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland and Bristol City finished level at 0-0 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 41, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.25 xG and Bristol City 1.28 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sunderland fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bristol City landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.94 / defence 1.18 against Bristol City attack 0.88 / defence 0.99, drawn from 86/86 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 36% | Draw 27% | Bristol City 37%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 54%, Bristol City 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Bristol City's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.38 PPG, Bristol City 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.49 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Bristol City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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