Stoke City 0-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stoke City at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stoke City vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Sunderland travel to bet365 Stadium to take on Stoke City. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 August 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Stoke City have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Stoke City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stoke City's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at bet365 Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sunderland — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sunderland have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sunderland's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sunderland are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Stoke City trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Sunderland trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 52% versus Sunderland 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 46% | Sunderland 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.71 xG and Sunderland 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 1.064 / defence 0.995 | Sunderland attack 1.170 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 0.956. Sunderland bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Stoke City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Stoke City games / 4 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stoke City 51% | Draw 25% | Sunderland 24%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Sunderland 4.17. Stoke City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stoke City as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sunderland (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stoke City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Stoke City 40% | Sunderland 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 51% | Draw 25% | Sunderland 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Stoke City 1.71 / Sunderland 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 1.064 / def 0.995 | Sunderland attack 1.170 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.337 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: Stoke City (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Sunderland xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stoke City vs Sunderland kick off?
Stoke City vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Sunderland?
Stoke City 0 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Stoke City vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Sunderland part of?
Stoke City vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 51% chance of winning, Sunderland a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stoke City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stoke City and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Stoke City vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Sunderland?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stoke City and Sunderland in?
Stoke City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Sunderland (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stoke City's attack rating (1.06) and Sunderland's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Stoke City's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
51%
1.96
25%
4.03
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Stoke City xG
Total xG
2.82
1.11
Sunderland xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
4%
22.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.11 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stoke City's recent record stands at 18W 12D 20L from 50 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stoke City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 25W 15D 10L across 50 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sunderland, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sunderland by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stoke City heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stoke City have managed 10W 6D 8L from 24 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland's away record stands at 8W 10D 6L across 24 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Stoke City are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.72 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Sunderland in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Early Season
Sunderland
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stoke City and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 18W 12D 20L in their last 50 games (1.32 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 25W 15D 10L in their last 50 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Sunderland away?
Stoke City's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.50 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Stoke City or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sunderland in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Mar 2023, when Stoke City won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stoke City's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Stoke City
0
Draws
3
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, Stoke City have won 3, Sunderland have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2024, when Stoke City 1-0 Sunderland.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stoke City see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 42%, Sunderland 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Stoke City) and 62% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Stoke City keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stoke City play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Stoke City's recent matches and 58% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stoke City vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Stoke City's recent games and 62% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stoke City and Sunderland tend to score early?
Stoke City have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sunderland defy the odds to beat Stoke City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Stoke City 0-1 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.71 xG and Sunderland 1.11 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stoke City fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 1.06 / defence 0.99 against Sunderland attack 1.17 / defence 1.20, drawn from 50/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 51% | Draw 25% | Sunderland 24%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Sunderland win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 46%, Sunderland 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.