Stoke City 1-0 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stoke City vs Sunderland encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sunderland travel to bet365 Stadium to take on Stoke City in Championship (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Stoke City have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Stoke City's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sunderland — last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sunderland's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sunderland are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Stoke City's games and 60% of Sunderland's (from Stoke City's last 10 home games and Sunderland's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Stoke City have won 2, Sunderland 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2024, ended Stoke City 1–2 Sunderland — a Sunderland win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Stoke City trading profile (last 69 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sunderland trading profile (last 69 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 44% versus Sunderland 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 42% | Sunderland 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.18 xG and Sunderland 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 0.919 / defence 1.267 | Sunderland attack 1.179 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.035. Stoke City's defence rating of 1.267 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sunderland's projected output up. Data: built from Stoke City's last 69 games and Sunderland's last 69.
Result probabilities: Stoke City 28% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 44%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 3.63 | Draw 3.55 | Sunderland 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Stoke City's last 10 home games and Sunderland's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stoke City 70% (last 10 home games) | Sunderland 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, matchday 24 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 28% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Stoke City 1.18 / Sunderland 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 0.919 / def 1.267 | Sunderland attack 1.179 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Sunderland xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stoke City vs Sunderland FAQs
What time does Stoke City vs Sunderland kick off?
Stoke City vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 29 December 2024 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Sunderland?
Stoke City 1 - 0 Sunderland.
Where is Stoke City vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Sunderland part of?
Stoke City vs Sunderland is a Championship fixture (matchday 24) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 28% chance of winning, Sunderland a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Stoke City and Sunderland will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stoke City vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stoke City's attack rating (0.92) and Sunderland's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Stoke City's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stoke City's last 69 games and Sunderland's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
28%
3.63
28%
3.55
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Stoke City xG
Total xG
2.73
1.55
Sunderland xG
3.63
28%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
6%
17.02
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stoke City vs Sunderland Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.55 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stoke City's recent record stands at 20W 18D 31L from 69 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 28W 16D 25L across 69 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stoke City on 1.13 PPG, Sunderland on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stoke City have managed 11W 11D 13L from their last 35 home games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland's away record stands at 11W 10D 14L across their last 35 away games, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Stoke City are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.28 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
Stoke City (Home) vs Sunderland (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stoke City
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Stoke City vs Sunderland Form FAQs
What form are Stoke City and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 20W 18D 31L in their last 69 games (1.13 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 28W 16D 25L in their last 69 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Sunderland away?
Stoke City's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.26 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Stoke City or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Sunderland in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 29 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Mar 2023, when Stoke City won Sunderland 1-5 Stoke City.
Stoke City's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Stoke City
0
Draws
3
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Stoke City vs Sunderland H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Sunderland?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Stoke City have won 3, Sunderland have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Sunderland last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 December 2024: Stoke City 1-0 Sunderland.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 43%, Sunderland 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Stoke City) and 40% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Stoke City keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Sunderland in 31%; Stoke City have failed to score in 37% of games; Sunderland in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stoke City vs Sunderland Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stoke City and Sunderland matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Stoke City's recent matches and 49% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stoke City and Sunderland matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Stoke City's recent games and 40% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stoke City and Sunderland matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Stoke City's recent matches and 63% of Sunderland's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stoke City defy the odds to beat Sunderland 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stoke City beat Sunderland 1-0 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.18 xG and Sunderland 1.55 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.92 / defence 1.27 against Sunderland attack 1.18 / defence 0.90, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 28% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 44%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Stoke City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 42%, Sunderland 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Sunderland's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.13 PPG, Sunderland 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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