Stoke City 0-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stoke City at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stoke City vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 45 as Stoke City welcome QPR to bet365 Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stoke City — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stoke City's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at bet365 Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Championship games this season, QPR have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Championship this season, QPR have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Stoke City carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Stoke City, 0 for QPR and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Stoke City in-play tendencies (90 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
QPR in-play tendencies (90 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 48% versus QPR 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 46% | QPR 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.45 xG and QPR 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 0.871 / defence 1.075 | QPR attack 0.964 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.110. QPR bring a strong defensive rating of 1.348 — this is suppressing Stoke City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 90 Stoke City games / 90 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stoke City 43% | Draw 28% | QPR 29%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | QPR 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stoke City are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stoke City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Stoke City 30% | QPR 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 43% | Draw 28% | QPR 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Stoke City 1.45 / QPR 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 0.871 / def 1.075 | QPR attack 0.964 / def 1.348 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Stoke City (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
1.15
QPR xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stoke City vs QPR kick off?
Stoke City vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs QPR?
Stoke City 0 - 1 QPR.
Where is Stoke City vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs QPR part of?
Stoke City vs QPR is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 43% chance of winning, QPR a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stoke City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Stoke City and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Stoke City vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and QPR?
Record (3 meetings): Stoke City 2W | Draws 1 | QPR 0W.
What form are Stoke City and QPR in?
Stoke City (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. QPR (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stoke City's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Stoke City's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 90/90 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.62
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Stoke City xG
Total xG
2.60
1.15
QPR xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
7%
14.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Stoke City and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.15 for QPR, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stoke City's recent record stands at 31W 22D 37L from 90 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 31W 20D 39L across 90 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stoke City on 1.28 PPG, QPR on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stoke City have managed 16W 10D 19L from 45 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 15W 9D 21L across 45 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Stoke City are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.14 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 90 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stoke City and QPR in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 31W 22D 37L in their last 90 games (1.28 PPG), while QPR have gone 31W 20D 39L in their last 90 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or QPR away?
Stoke City's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.29 PPG; QPR away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Stoke City or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, QPR in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stoke City and QPR runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stoke City's record when hosting QPR specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Stoke City
3
Draws
3
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, Stoke City have won 4, QPR have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Stoke City 0-0 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and QPR?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 40%, QPR 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Stoke City) and 58% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Stoke City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stoke City have failed to score in 33% of games; QPR in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stoke City play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stoke City's recent matches and 58% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stoke City vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Stoke City's recent games and 58% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stoke City and QPR tend to score early?
Stoke City have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, QPR in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as QPR defy the odds to beat Stoke City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Stoke City 0-1 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.45 xG and QPR 1.15 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stoke City fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.87 / defence 1.07 against QPR attack 0.96 / defence 1.35, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 43% | Draw 28% | QPR 29%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 46%, QPR 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
QPR's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.28 PPG, QPR 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. QPR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.