Stoke City 1-3 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stoke City vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stoke City host Hull City at bet365 Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 September 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stoke City stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Stoke City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at bet365 Stadium, Stoke City have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Hull City — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hull City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Hull City have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hull City are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Stoke City have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while Hull City have managed just 0 wins.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Stoke City a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Stoke City trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Hull City trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 40% versus Hull City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 42% | Hull City 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.19 xG and Hull City 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 0.926 / defence 0.998 | Hull City attack 1.022 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.181. Data: 53 Stoke City games / 53 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stoke City 34% | Draw 32% | Hull City 35%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Hull City 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Stoke City dominate the H2H record, yet Hull City are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stoke City 40% | Hull City 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 34% | Draw 32% | Hull City 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Stoke City 1.19 / Hull City 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 0.926 / def 0.998 | Hull City attack 1.022 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Hull City (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Hull City xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stoke City vs Hull City kick off?
Stoke City vs Hull City kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Hull City?
Stoke City 1 - 3 Hull City.
Where is Stoke City vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Hull City part of?
Stoke City vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 34% chance of winning, Hull City a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Stoke City and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Stoke City vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Hull City?
Record (4 meetings): Stoke City 3W | Draws 1 | Hull City 0W.
What form are Stoke City and Hull City in?
Stoke City (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Hull City (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stoke City's attack rating (0.93) and Hull City's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Stoke City's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
34%
2.96
32%
3.17
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Stoke City xG
Total xG
2.39
1.20
Hull City xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
11%
9.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.20 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Stoke City have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 16W 12D 25L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Stoke City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hull City's form line: 17W 19D 17L from 53 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stoke City on 1.13 PPG, Hull City on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stoke City have posted 1.12 PPG from 26 outings (8W 5D 13L).
On the road, Hull City have gone 7W 10D 9L from 26 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Stoke City are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.15 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Early Season
Hull City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stoke City and Hull City in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 16W 12D 25L in their last 53 games (1.13 PPG), while Hull City have gone 17W 19D 17L in their last 53 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.12 PPG; Hull City away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Stoke City or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Hull City in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stoke City and Hull City runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2022, when Stoke City won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stoke City's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Stoke City
1
Draws
3
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, Stoke City have won 6, Hull City have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Hull City 0-1 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and Hull City?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Hull City see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 35%, Hull City 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Stoke City) and 46% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Hull City in 31%; Stoke City have failed to score in 46% of games; Hull City in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stoke City play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Stoke City's recent matches and 54% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stoke City vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Stoke City's recent games and 46% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stoke City and Hull City tend to score early?
Stoke City have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Hull City in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Stoke City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Stoke City 1-3 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.19 xG and Hull City 1.20 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Hull City outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Hull City attack 1.02 / defence 0.90, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 34% | Draw 32% | Hull City 35%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 42%, Hull City 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Hull City's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.13 PPG, Hull City 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.