Rotherham 1-1 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swansea at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rotherham vs Swansea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rotherham host Swansea at AESSEAL New York Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 July 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rotherham — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Rotherham haven't played a Championship game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Rotherham's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at AESSEAL New York Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rotherham are significantly better at AESSEAL New York Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Swansea haven't played a Championship game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Swansea's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rotherham at 1.40 PPG versus Swansea's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Rotherham in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Swansea in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rotherham 33% versus Swansea 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rotherham 33% | Swansea 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rotherham 1.36 xG and Swansea 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rotherham attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Swansea attack 1.116 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.096. Data: 0 Rotherham games / 46 Swansea games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Rotherham 36% | Draw 25% | Swansea 38%. Fair-value odds: Rotherham 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Swansea 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swansea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Rotherham 40% | Swansea 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rotherham vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: AESSEAL New York Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rotherham 36% | Draw 25% | Swansea 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Rotherham 1.36 / Swansea 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Rotherham attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Swansea attack 1.116 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Swansea (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Rotherham xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Swansea xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rotherham vs Swansea kick off?
Rotherham vs Swansea kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at AESSEAL New York Stadium.
What was the final score in Rotherham vs Swansea?
Rotherham 1 - 1 Swansea.
Where is Rotherham vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at AESSEAL New York Stadium.
What competition is Rotherham vs Swansea part of?
Rotherham vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Rotherham vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Rotherham a 36% chance of winning, Swansea a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rotherham vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rotherham and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Rotherham vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Swansea?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rotherham and Swansea in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Rotherham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rotherham's attack rating (0.85) and Swansea's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Rotherham's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
36%
2.76
25%
3.93
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Rotherham xG
Total xG
2.77
1.41
Swansea xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
24%
4.08
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
9%
11.28
10%
10.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rotherham vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Rotherham and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Rotherham and 1.41 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Rotherham vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rotherham's recent record stands at 27W 9D 10L from 46 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. Rotherham haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Swansea, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 17L across 46 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five. Swansea haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rotherham by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Swansea heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rotherham have managed 15W 3D 5L from 23 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Swansea's away record stands at 7W 5D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rotherham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rotherham are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.26 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Rotherham have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rotherham
Pre-Season
Swansea
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rotherham and Swansea in coming into this match?
Rotherham have gone 27W 9D 10L in their last 46 games (1.96 PPG), while Swansea have gone 16W 13D 17L in their last 46 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rotherham at home or Swansea away?
Rotherham's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rotherham at home: 2.09 PPG; Swansea away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Rotherham or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rotherham have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Swansea in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Swansea go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Rotherham's record when hosting Swansea specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Rotherham
2
Draws
2
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Swansea?
From 4 meetings on record, Rotherham have won 0, Swansea have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rotherham and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Swansea 1-0 Rotherham.
Who has won more matches between Rotherham and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rotherham 52%, Swansea 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Rotherham) and 56% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Rotherham keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Swansea in 30%; Swansea in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rotherham home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rotherham play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Rotherham's recent matches and 44% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rotherham vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Rotherham's recent games and 56% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rotherham and Swansea tend to score early?
Rotherham have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Swansea in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rotherham and Swansea share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rotherham and Swansea finished level at 1-1 at AESSEAL New York Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 1.36 xG and Swansea 1.41 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Swansea attack 1.12 / defence 1.14, drawn from 0/46 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rotherham 36% | Draw 25% | Swansea 38%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 33%, Swansea 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rotherham's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Swansea's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rotherham arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rotherham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.