QPR 3-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates QPR at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this QPR vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Loftus Road plays host to QPR versus Hull City in Championship, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Tuesday 30 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
QPR have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. QPR have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Loftus Road, QPR have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hull City (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hull City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hull City's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for QPR, 1.50 for Hull City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: QPR 1W, Hull City 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 58% versus Hull City 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 52% | Hull City 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.48 xG and Hull City 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.935 / defence 1.131 | Hull City attack 0.955 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.057. Data: 52 QPR games / 52 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 45% | Draw 26% | Hull City 29%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Hull City 3.45. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: QPR 70% | Hull City 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 45% | Draw 26% | Hull City 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG QPR 1.48 / Hull City 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.935 / def 1.131 | Hull City attack 0.955 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: QPR (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Hull City xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Hull City kick off?
QPR vs Hull City kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 30 August 2022 at Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Hull City?
QPR 3 - 1 Hull City.
Where is QPR vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Hull City part of?
QPR vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 45% chance of winning, Hull City a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both QPR and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Hull City?
Record (2 meetings): QPR 1W | Draws 1 | Hull City 0W.
What form are QPR and Hull City in?
QPR (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Hull City (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
QPR's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (0.95x) against QPR's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
45%
2.23
26%
3.87
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
QPR xG
Total xG
2.62
1.14
Hull City xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
7%
14.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are QPR and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for QPR and 1.14 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
QPR's recent record stands at 21W 11D 20L from 52 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for QPR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hull City, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 24L across 52 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for QPR against 1.19 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, QPR have managed 11W 7D 8L from 26 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hull City's away record stands at 7W 7D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
QPR are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 0.98 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Early Season
Hull City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Hull City in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 21W 11D 20L in their last 52 games (1.42 PPG), while Hull City have gone 17W 11D 24L in their last 52 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Hull City away?
QPR's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.54 PPG; Hull City away: 1.08 PPG.
Have QPR or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Hull City in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
QPR go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: QPR won 0-3 on 14 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
QPR
1
Draws
3
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, QPR have won 6, Hull City have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Hull City 1-3 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Hull City?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 50%, Hull City 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for QPR and 27% for Hull City.
On the defensive side: QPR keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Hull City in 38%; Hull City in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of QPR's recent matches and 31% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of QPR's recent games and 27% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Hull City tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hull City in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
QPR cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Hull City 3-1 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 7, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.48 xG and Hull City 1.14 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. QPR beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.94 / defence 1.13 against Hull City attack 0.95 / defence 1.19, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 45% | Draw 26% | Hull City 29%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 52%, Hull City 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Hull City's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.42 PPG, Hull City 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Hull City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.