QPR 1-3 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates QPR at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Blackburn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
QPR host Blackburn at Loftus Road in Championship, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
QPR — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
QPR at Loftus Road this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — QPR are significantly better at Loftus Road than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Blackburn stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Blackburn away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, QPR have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for QPR, 5 for Blackburn and 0 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with QPR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
QPR in-play and half-time data (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Blackburn in-play and half-time data (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 64% versus Blackburn 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 56% | Blackburn 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.76 xG and Blackburn 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 1.289 / defence 1.183 | Blackburn attack 0.715 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.144. QPR carry an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 77 QPR games / 77 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 55% | Draw 26% | Blackburn 19%. Fair-value odds: QPR 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Blackburn 5.26. The model has a clear lean to QPR (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Blackburn lead the H2H ledger, but QPR carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: QPR 90% | Blackburn 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 55% | Draw 26% | Blackburn 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG QPR 1.76 / Blackburn 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 1.289 / def 1.183 | Blackburn attack 0.715 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: QPR (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
QPR xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Blackburn xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Blackburn kick off?
QPR vs Blackburn kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Blackburn?
QPR 1 - 3 Blackburn.
Where is QPR vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Blackburn part of?
QPR vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 55% chance of winning, Blackburn a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both QPR and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Blackburn?
Record (8 meetings): QPR 3W | Draws 0 | Blackburn 5W.
What form are QPR and Blackburn in?
QPR (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Blackburn (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from QPR's attack rating (1.29) and Blackburn's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 77/77 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
55%
1.83
26%
3.83
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
QPR xG
Total xG
2.72
0.97
Blackburn xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
3%
30.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are QPR and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for QPR and 0.97 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Blackburn?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 77 outings, QPR have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 26W 22D 29L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Blackburn's form line: 27W 17D 33L from 77 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.30 PPG, Blackburn on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.45 PPG from 38 outings (15W 10D 13L).
On the road, Blackburn have gone 12W 8D 18L from 38 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
QPR are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.04 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 77 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Blackburn
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Blackburn in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 26W 22D 29L in their last 77 games (1.30 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 27W 17D 33L in their last 77 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Blackburn away?
QPR's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.45 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when Blackburn won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
QPR's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
QPR
0
Draws
6
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Blackburn?
From 10 meetings on record, QPR have won 4, Blackburn have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Blackburn 1-2 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Blackburn?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 74%, Blackburn 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (QPR) and 37% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Blackburn in 34%; Blackburn in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 74% of QPR's recent matches and 34% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of QPR's recent games and 37% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Blackburn tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Blackburn cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat QPR 1-3 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.76 xG and Blackburn 0.97 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Blackburn outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.29 / defence 1.18 against Blackburn attack 0.71 / defence 1.05, drawn from 77/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 55% | Draw 26% | Blackburn 19%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Blackburn win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 56%, Blackburn 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Blackburn's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.30 PPG, Blackburn 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Blackburn (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.