Preston 1-1 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Brom at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Preston vs West Brom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees West Brom travel to Deepdale to take on Preston. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 November 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Preston stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preston's home record at Deepdale: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Deepdale. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
West Brom — All Games: 1W 8D 1L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, West Brom have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Preston 1.20 PPG, West Brom 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Preston, 3 for West Brom and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 0–3 with West Brom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Preston in-play tendencies (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
West Brom in-play tendencies (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preston 49% versus West Brom 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 56% | West Brom 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 0.93 xG and West Brom 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 0.856 / defence 0.967 | West Brom attack 1.085 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.030. Data: 63 Preston games / 63 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preston 29% | Draw 33% | West Brom 37%. Fair-value odds: Preston 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | West Brom 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Brom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Preston 30% | West Brom 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 29% | Draw 33% | West Brom 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Preston 0.93 / West Brom 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 0.856 / def 0.967 | West Brom attack 1.085 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: West Brom (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Preston xG
Expected Goals
1.08
West Brom xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preston vs West Brom kick off?
Preston vs West Brom kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs West Brom?
Preston 1 - 1 West Brom.
Where is Preston vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs West Brom part of?
Preston vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 29% chance of winning, West Brom a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Preston and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Preston vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and West Brom?
Record (6 meetings): Preston 2W | Draws 1 | West Brom 3W.
What form are Preston and West Brom in?
Preston (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. West Brom (all comps): 1W-8D-1L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Preston vs West Brom?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Preston's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against West Brom's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, West Brom's attack versus Preston's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
29%
3.40
33%
3.01
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Preston xG
Total xG
2.01
1.08
West Brom xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
10%
10.03
15%
6.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 14.5 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Preston and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Preston and 1.08 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Preston come into this having played 63 games, going 21W 17D 25L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, West Brom sit at 1.59 PPG from 63 outings (26W 22D 15L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Preston on 1.27 PPG, West Brom on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Preston's home form reads 14W 8D 10L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, West Brom have taken 1.31 points per game from 32 outings (10W 12D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Preston are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.35 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Blended
West Brom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preston and West Brom in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 21W 17D 25L in their last 63 games (1.27 PPG), while West Brom have gone 26W 22D 15L in their last 63 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or West Brom away?
Preston's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.56 PPG; West Brom away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Preston or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Preston have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, West Brom in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Preston and West Brom runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
West Brom have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Sep 2023, when West Brom won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Preston's record when hosting West Brom specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Preston
2
Draws
6
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and West Brom?
From 10 meetings on record, Preston have won 2, West Brom have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Preston and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Preston 0-2 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between Preston and West Brom?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 56%, West Brom 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Preston) and 56% (West Brom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Preston have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preston play West Brom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Preston's games and 59% of West Brom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Preston vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Preston's matches and 56% of West Brom's.
Do Preston and West Brom tend to score early?
Preston have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, West Brom in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Preston and West Brom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preston and West Brom finished level at 1-1 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 0.93 xG and West Brom 1.08 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against West Brom attack 1.08 / defence 0.81, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 29% | Draw 33% | West Brom 37%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 56%, West Brom 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
West Brom's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preston 1.27 PPG, West Brom 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.