Preston vs Burnley – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Preston at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Preston vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Preston host Burnley at Deepdale in Championship, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 16 March 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Preston have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Preston have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Preston have posted 2W 2D 6L at Deepdale — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Burnley have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Preston) versus 0.40 (Burnley). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Preston have won 0, Burnley 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Preston in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Burnley in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Preston 62% and Burnley 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 52% | Burnley 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 1.86 xG and Burnley 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 0.829 / defence 1.347 | Burnley attack 0.832 / defence 1.566. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.305. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.566 — this is suppressing Preston's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Preston games / 4 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preston 44% | Draw 28% | Burnley 28%. Fair-value odds: Preston 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Burnley 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Preston at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Preston offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Preston 70% | Burnley 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Mar 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 44% | Draw 28% | Burnley 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 68% | xG Preston 1.86 / Burnley 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 0.829 / def 1.347 | Burnley attack 0.832 / def 1.566 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Preston (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Preston xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Burnley xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preston vs Burnley kick off?
Preston vs Burnley is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 16 March 2027 at Deepdale.
Where is Preston vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs Burnley part of?
Preston vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 44% chance of winning, Burnley a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Preston the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Preston and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Preston vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Burnley?
Record (4 meetings): Preston 0W | Draws 3 | Burnley 1W.
What form are Preston and Burnley in?
Preston (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Burnley (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Preston's attack rating (0.83) and Burnley's defence rating (1.57), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Preston's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Preston Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.59
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Preston xG
Total xG
3.32
1.46
Burnley xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
10%
9.73
4%
23.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Preston and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Preston and 1.46 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Preston have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 12W 11D 19L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Preston, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Burnley's form line: 4W 12D 26L from 42 games, 0.57 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Preston are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Preston have posted 1.10 PPG from 21 outings (6W 5D 10L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 2W 3D 16L from 21 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Preston come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Preston are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.02 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preston have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Burnley in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Early Season
Burnley
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preston and Burnley in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Burnley have gone 4W 12D 26L in their last 42 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or Burnley away?
Preston's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.10 PPG; Burnley away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Preston and Burnley runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2023, when Burnley won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Preston's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Preston
3
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, Preston have won 0, Burnley have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Preston and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Preston 0-0 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Preston and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Preston at 62%, Burnley at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Preston and 71% for Burnley. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preston play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Preston's games and 76% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Preston vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Preston's matches and 71% of Burnley's.
Do Preston and Burnley tend to score early?
Preston have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Burnley in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.