Portsmouth 0-3 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Brom at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portsmouth vs West Brom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Portsmouth host West Brom at Fratton Park in Championship, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Portsmouth have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Portsmouth have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Portsmouth's home record at Fratton Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Championship appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Portsmouth are significantly better at Fratton Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, West Brom stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. West Brom have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Championship this season, West Brom have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Portsmouth) versus 1.40 (West Brom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 90% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Portsmouth trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
West Brom trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 56% versus West Brom 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 58% | West Brom 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 0.98 xG and West Brom 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 0.729 / defence 1.244 | West Brom attack 1.279 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.099. Portsmouth's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. West Brom have an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 Portsmouth games / 50 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 21% | Draw 24% | West Brom 55%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | West Brom 1.82. The model has a clear lean to West Brom (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is West Brom at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Portsmouth 90% | West Brom 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 21% | Draw 24% | West Brom 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Portsmouth 0.98 / West Brom 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 0.729 / def 1.244 | West Brom attack 1.279 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: West Brom (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
1.75
West Brom xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs West Brom kick off?
Portsmouth vs West Brom kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs West Brom?
Portsmouth 0 - 3 West Brom.
Where is Portsmouth vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs West Brom part of?
Portsmouth vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 21% chance of winning, West Brom a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Portsmouth and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and West Brom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Portsmouth and West Brom in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. West Brom (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Portsmouth's attack rating (0.73) and West Brom's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, West Brom's attack versus Portsmouth's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.0%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
21%
4.76
24%
4.25
55%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.73
1.75
West Brom xG
4.76
21%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
1.80
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
17%
5.75
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
4%
27.34
21%
4.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.4 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.75 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs West Brom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Portsmouth's recent record stands at 28W 16D 6L from 50 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Portsmouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
West Brom, meanwhile, have gone 23W 14D 13L across 50 games — 1.66 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for West Brom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Portsmouth on 2.00 PPG, West Brom on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Portsmouth have managed 15W 6D 4L from 25 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
West Brom's away record stands at 8W 8D 9L across 25 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Portsmouth are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.46 scored and 0.96 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; West Brom in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Early Season
West Brom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and West Brom in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 28W 16D 6L in their last 50 games (2.00 PPG), while West Brom have gone 23W 14D 13L in their last 50 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or West Brom away?
Portsmouth's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 2.04 PPG; West Brom away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, West Brom in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Portsmouth and West Brom runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jan 2025, when West Brom won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Portsmouth's record when hosting West Brom specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Portsmouth
1
Draws
2
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and West Brom?
From 4 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 1, West Brom have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Portsmouth 3-0 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and West Brom?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 68%, West Brom 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Portsmouth and 60% for West Brom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play West Brom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Portsmouth's games and 60% of West Brom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Portsmouth vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Portsmouth's matches and 60% of West Brom's.
Do Portsmouth and West Brom tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, West Brom in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant West Brom run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Portsmouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat Portsmouth 0-3 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 0.98 xG and West Brom 1.75 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Portsmouth fell 1.0 short of their projected output. West Brom outscored their 1.75 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.73 / defence 1.24 against West Brom attack 1.28 / defence 0.96, drawn from 4/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 21% | Draw 24% | West Brom 55%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 58%, West Brom 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
West Brom's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portsmouth 2.00 PPG, West Brom 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. West Brom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.