Portsmouth 0-0 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burnley at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Portsmouth vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Burnley travel to Fratton Park to take on Portsmouth in Championship (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Portsmouth stand at 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Portsmouth have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Portsmouth are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Burnley — last 10 games: 5W 5D 0L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Burnley's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Burnley are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Portsmouth, 1 for Burnley and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Portsmouth 1–2 Burnley — a Burnley win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Portsmouth in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Burnley in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 55% versus Burnley 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 64% | Burnley 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 0.81 xG and Burnley 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 1.189 / defence 0.977 | Burnley attack 1.215 / defence 0.497. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.034. Burnley bring a tight defence (rating 0.497, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Portsmouth's projected output down. Burnley have an above-average attack rating of 1.215, which lifts their away xG to 1.23. Data: built from Portsmouth's last 29 games and Burnley's last 29.
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 24% | Draw 31% | Burnley 45%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 4.22 | Draw 3.21 | Burnley 2.22. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burnley are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Portsmouth 60% (last 10 home games) | Burnley 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, matchday 30 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 24% | Draw 31% | Burnley 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Portsmouth 0.81 / Burnley 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 1.189 / def 0.977 | Burnley attack 1.215 / def 0.497 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Burnley (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Burnley xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Portsmouth vs Burnley FAQs
What time does Portsmouth vs Burnley kick off?
Portsmouth vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Burnley?
Portsmouth 0 - 0 Burnley.
Where is Portsmouth vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Burnley part of?
Portsmouth vs Burnley is a Championship fixture (matchday 30) (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 24% chance of winning, Burnley a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Portsmouth and Burnley will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Portsmouth vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Portsmouth's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (0.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Portsmouth's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Portsmouth's last 29 games and Burnley's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
24%
4.22
31%
3.21
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.04
1.23
Burnley xG
4.22
24%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
7%
14.37
20%
4.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 16.0 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Portsmouth vs Burnley Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.23 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 67 outings, Portsmouth have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 31W 17D 19L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Burnley's form line: 20W 21D 26L from 67 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Portsmouth are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Portsmouth have posted 1.94 PPG from their last 33 home games (19W 7D 7L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 12W 8D 13L from their last 33 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Portsmouth are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.15 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
Portsmouth (Home) vs Burnley (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Portsmouth
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Portsmouth vs Burnley Form FAQs
What form are Portsmouth and Burnley in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 31W 17D 19L in their last 67 games (1.64 PPG), while Burnley have gone 20W 21D 26L in their last 67 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Burnley away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.94 PPG; Burnley away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Burnley in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2024. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Portsmouth
2
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Portsmouth vs Burnley H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Burnley?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Portsmouth have won 0, Burnley have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Burnley last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Burnley 0-0 Portsmouth.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 64%, Burnley 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Portsmouth) and 46% (Burnley). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley in 33%; Burnley in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Portsmouth vs Burnley Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Portsmouth and Burnley matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 46% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Portsmouth and Burnley matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Portsmouth's matches and 46% of Burnley's.
Do Portsmouth and Burnley matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 73% of Burnley's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Portsmouth's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 30, as Portsmouth and Burnley drew 0-0 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 0.81 xG and Burnley 1.23 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Portsmouth fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Burnley landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.19 / defence 0.98 against Burnley attack 1.22 / defence 0.50, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 24% | Draw 31% | Burnley 45%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 64%, Burnley 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burnley's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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