Plymouth 0-1 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Preston at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Preston encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Home Park plays host to Plymouth versus Preston in Championship, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Plymouth (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Plymouth at Home Park this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Preston's overall Championship record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Preston have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Preston are 0.70 PPG clear of Plymouth in recent Championship fixtures (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Plymouth 0W, Preston 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Preston winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (82 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Preston goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (82 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 56% versus Preston 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 58% | Preston 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.40 xG and Preston 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.081 / defence 1.434 | Preston attack 1.051 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.241. Data: 37 Plymouth games / 82 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 29% | Draw 22% | Preston 49%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 3.45 | Draw 4.55 | Preston 2.04. Preston hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Preston at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Preston if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 60% | Preston 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 29% | Draw 22% | Preston 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Plymouth 1.40 / Preston 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.081 / def 1.434 | Preston attack 1.051 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Preston (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Preston xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Preston kick off?
Plymouth vs Preston kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Preston?
Plymouth 0 - 1 Preston.
Where is Plymouth vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Preston part of?
Plymouth vs Preston is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 29% chance of winning, Preston a 49% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Preston the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Plymouth and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Preston?
Record (1 meetings): Plymouth 0W | Draws 0 | Preston 1W.
What form are Plymouth and Preston in?
Plymouth (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Preston (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Plymouth's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Preston's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Preston's attack (1.05x) against Plymouth's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 37/82 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Preston Win
29%
3.46
22%
4.44
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Plymouth xG
Total xG
3.27
1.87
Preston xG
3.46
29%
Home win
4.44
22%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
15%
6.49
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
4%
22.44
12%
8.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.87 for Preston, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Plymouth's recent record stands at 40W 19D 23L from 82 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Preston, meanwhile, have gone 32W 20D 30L across 82 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Plymouth against 1.41 for Preston. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 27W 5D 8L from 40 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Preston's away record stands at 16W 9D 15L across 40 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.13 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 82 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Preston
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Preston in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 40W 19D 23L in their last 82 games (1.70 PPG), while Preston have gone 32W 20D 30L in their last 82 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Preston away?
Plymouth's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.15 PPG; Preston away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Preston been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Preston in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Preston — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Plymouth
1
Draws
2
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Preston?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 1, Preston have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Preston 1-2 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Preston?
Preston have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Preston see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 52%, Preston 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Plymouth) and 48% (Preston). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Preston in 38%; Preston in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Preston?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Plymouth's recent matches and 42% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Plymouth's matches and 48% of Preston's.
Do Plymouth and Preston tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Preston in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Preston edge out Plymouth 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preston beat Plymouth 0-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.40 xG and Preston 1.87 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Plymouth fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Preston landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.08 / defence 1.43 against Preston attack 1.05 / defence 0.95, drawn from 37/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 29% | Draw 22% | Preston 49%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 58%, Preston 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Preston's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.70 PPG, Preston 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Preston win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.02 scoring average — below par going forward. Preston (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.