Plymouth 5-1 Millwall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Millwall (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Plymouth face Millwall.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Millwall travel to Home Park to take on Plymouth in Championship (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 12 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Plymouth — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Plymouth have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Millwall have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Millwall's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Millwall — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Millwall have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Plymouth. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 23 Oct 2024, ended Plymouth 0–1 Millwall — a Millwall win.
Millwall have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Plymouth in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Millwall in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 51% versus Millwall 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 55% | Millwall 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.01 xG and Millwall 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.037 / defence 1.546 | Millwall attack 0.854 / defence 0.725. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.053. Millwall bring a tight defence (rating 0.725, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Plymouth's projected output down. Plymouth's defence rating of 1.546 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Millwall's projected output up. Data: built from Plymouth's last 76 games and Millwall's last 76.
Result probabilities: Plymouth 27% | Draw 27% | Millwall 46%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 3.70 | Draw 3.65 | Millwall 2.20. Millwall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Millwall as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Millwall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Plymouth 70% (last 10 home games) | Millwall 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Millwall | Competition: Championship, matchday 32 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 27% | Draw 27% | Millwall 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Plymouth 1.01 / Millwall 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.037 / def 1.546 | Millwall attack 0.854 / def 0.725 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Millwall (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Millwall xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plymouth vs Millwall FAQs
What time does Plymouth vs Millwall kick off?
Plymouth vs Millwall kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Wednesday 12 February 2025 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Millwall?
Plymouth 5 - 1 Millwall.
Where is Plymouth vs Millwall being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Millwall part of?
Plymouth vs Millwall is a Championship fixture (matchday 32) (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Millwall?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 27% chance of winning, Millwall a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Millwall?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Plymouth and Millwall will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Plymouth vs Millwall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 1.04x the league average against Millwall's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Millwall's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plymouth's last 76 games and Millwall's last 76 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
27%
3.70
27%
3.65
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.40
1.39
Millwall xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
37%
2.74
Win to Nil
7%
14.86
17%
6.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plymouth vs Millwall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Millwall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Millwall expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.39 for Millwall, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Millwall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plymouth come into this having played 76 games, going 18W 22D 36L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Millwall sit at 1.30 PPG from 76 outings (26W 21D 29L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.00 PPG, Millwall on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Plymouth's home form reads 14W 11D 12L across their last 37 home games, a 1.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Millwall have taken 1.16 points per game from their last 37 away games (10W 13D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Plymouth are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Millwall are on 0.99 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Millwall in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Millwall
Current Season
Plymouth (Home) vs Millwall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plymouth
Current Season
Millwall
Current Season
❓ Plymouth vs Millwall Form FAQs
What form are Plymouth and Millwall in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 18W 22D 36L in their last 76 games (1.00 PPG), while Millwall have gone 26W 21D 29L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Millwall away?
Plymouth's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.43 PPG; Millwall away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Millwall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Millwall in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 12 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Feb 2025, when Plymouth won Plymouth 5-1 Millwall.
Plymouth's record when hosting Millwall specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Plymouth
0
Draws
3
Millwall
Recent Meetings
❓ Plymouth vs Millwall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Millwall?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Plymouth have won 1, Millwall have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Millwall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 February 2025: Plymouth 5-1 Millwall.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Millwall?
Millwall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Millwall see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 60%, Millwall 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Plymouth) and 30% (Millwall).
On the defensive side: Millwall in 38%; Millwall in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Millwall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plymouth vs Millwall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plymouth and Millwall matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Plymouth's recent matches and 43% of Millwall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Plymouth and Millwall matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Plymouth's recent games and 30% of Millwall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Millwall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Plymouth's recent matches and 57% of Millwall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plymouth run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Millwall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Millwall 5-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.01 xG and Millwall 1.39 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Plymouth beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.04 / defence 1.55 against Millwall attack 0.85 / defence 0.72, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 27% | Draw 27% | Millwall 46%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 55%, Millwall 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Millwall's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.00 PPG, Millwall 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. Millwall (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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