Plymouth 1-0 Leicester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Leicester at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Leicester encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plymouth host Leicester at Home Park in Championship (matchday 43). Kick-off is Friday 12 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Plymouth stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Plymouth have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Leicester — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Leicester away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Leicester — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Plymouth, 1 for Leicester and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Plymouth 0–4 Leicester — a Leicester win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Plymouth in-play tendencies (last 79 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Leicester in-play tendencies (last 79 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 31 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 56% versus Leicester 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 56% | Leicester 61%). Note also that Leicester surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Plymouth recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.23 xG and Leicester 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.934 / defence 1.364 | Leicester attack 1.131 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.171. Plymouth's defence rating of 1.364 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Leicester's projected output up. Data: built from Plymouth's last 42 games and Leicester's last 41.
Result probabilities: Plymouth 26% | Draw 23% | Leicester 51%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 3.84 | Draw 4.34 | Leicester 1.97. Leicester hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Leicester as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leicester offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Plymouth's last 10 home games and Leicester's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Plymouth 50% (last 10 home games) | Leicester 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Leicester | Competition: Championship, matchday 43 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Friday 12 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 26% | Draw 23% | Leicester 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Plymouth 1.23 / Leicester 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.934 / def 1.364 | Leicester attack 1.131 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Leicester (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Leicester xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plymouth vs Leicester FAQs
What time does Plymouth vs Leicester kick off?
Plymouth vs Leicester kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Friday 12 April 2024 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Leicester?
Plymouth 1 - 0 Leicester.
Where is Plymouth vs Leicester being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Leicester part of?
Plymouth vs Leicester is a Championship fixture (matchday 43) (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Leicester?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 26% chance of winning, Leicester a 51% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Leicester?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Plymouth and Leicester will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plymouth vs Leicester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 0.93x the league average against Leicester's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Leicester's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plymouth's last 42 games and Leicester's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
26%
3.84
23%
4.34
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Plymouth xG
Total xG
3.04
1.81
Leicester xG
3.84
26%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
4%
23.40
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plymouth vs Leicester Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.81 for Leicester, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Leicester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plymouth come into this having played 79 games, going 36W 19D 24L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Leicester sit at 1.54 PPG from 79 outings (37W 11D 31L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.61 PPG, Leicester on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Plymouth's home form reads 24W 6D 10L across their last 40 home games, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Leicester have taken 1.42 points per game from their last 40 away games (17W 6D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plymouth are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Leicester are on 1.65 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 79 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Leicester
Current Season
Plymouth (Home) vs Leicester (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plymouth
Current Season
Leicester
Current Season
❓ Plymouth vs Leicester Form FAQs
What form are Plymouth and Leicester in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 36W 19D 24L in their last 79 games (1.61 PPG), while Leicester have gone 37W 11D 31L in their last 79 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Leicester away?
Plymouth's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.95 PPG; Leicester away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. They cover more than one competition — Championship, League One. The most recent was as recently as 1 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Dec 2023, when Leicester won Leicester 4-0 Plymouth.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Plymouth
0
Draws
2
Leicester
Recent Meetings
❓ Plymouth vs Leicester H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Leicester?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Plymouth have won 1, Leicester have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Leicester last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 September 2026: Leicester 2-0 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Leicester?
Leicester have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 55%, Leicester 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Plymouth and 60% for Leicester. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Leicester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plymouth vs Leicester Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plymouth and Leicester matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Plymouth's games and 62% of Leicester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Plymouth and Leicester matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Plymouth's matches and 60% of Leicester's.
Do Plymouth and Leicester matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Plymouth's recent matches and 78% of Leicester's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plymouth defy the odds to beat Leicester 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Leicester 1-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.23 xG and Leicester 1.81 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Leicester landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.93 / defence 1.36 against Leicester attack 1.13 / defence 0.98, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 26% | Draw 23% | Leicester 51%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 56%, Leicester 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (79 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Leicester's trading profile (79 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.61 PPG, Leicester 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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