Plymouth 2-3 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Plymouth face Derby.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derby make the trip to Home Park to face Plymouth in Championship (matchday 38). The match kicks off on Saturday 15 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Plymouth have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Derby's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Derby have posted 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Plymouth, 0.80 for Derby — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Plymouth edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2024, ended Plymouth 1–1 Derby — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 83 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 83 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 52% versus Derby 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 54% | Derby 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.80 xG and Derby 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.079 / defence 1.508 | Derby attack 0.707 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.032. Derby's defence rating of 1.244 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Plymouth's projected output up. Derby's attack rating of 0.707 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Plymouth's defence rating of 1.508 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Derby's projected output up. Data: built from Plymouth's last 83 games and Derby's last 37.
Result probabilities: Plymouth 54% | Draw 24% | Derby 23%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.87 | Draw 4.24 | Derby 4.37. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plymouth if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Plymouth's last 10 home games and Derby's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Plymouth 70% (last 10 home games) | Derby 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Derby | Competition: Championship, matchday 38 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 15 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 54% | Draw 24% | Derby 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Plymouth 1.80 / Derby 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.079 / def 1.508 | Derby attack 0.707 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Derby xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plymouth vs Derby FAQs
What time does Plymouth vs Derby kick off?
Plymouth vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Derby?
Plymouth 2 - 3 Derby.
Where is Plymouth vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Derby part of?
Plymouth vs Derby is a Championship fixture (matchday 38) (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 54% chance of winning, Derby a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Plymouth and Derby will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plymouth vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Plymouth's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.71x) against Plymouth's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Plymouth's last 83 games and Derby's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
54%
1.87
24%
4.24
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.90
1.10
Derby xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
16%
6.06
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
4%
26.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plymouth vs Derby Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.10 for Derby, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Plymouth come into this having played 83 games, going 20W 24D 39L for 1.01 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Derby sit at 1.53 PPG from 83 outings (37W 16D 30L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Derby carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Plymouth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Plymouth's home form reads 16W 12D 13L across their last 41 home games, a 1.46 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.01 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Derby have taken 1.24 points per game from their last 41 away games (14W 9D 18L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plymouth are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.39 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 83 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
Plymouth (Home) vs Derby (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plymouth
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Plymouth vs Derby Form FAQs
What form are Plymouth and Derby in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 20W 24D 39L in their last 83 games (1.01 PPG), while Derby have gone 37W 16D 30L in their last 83 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Derby away?
Plymouth's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.46 PPG; Derby away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Derby in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. They cover more than one competition — League One, Championship. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Plymouth
1
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Plymouth vs Derby H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Derby?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Plymouth have won 2, Derby have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Derby last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2025: Plymouth 2-3 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Derby?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 58% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 61%, Derby 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Plymouth) and 49% (Derby). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Derby in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plymouth vs Derby Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plymouth and Derby matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Plymouth's recent matches and 49% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Plymouth and Derby matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Plymouth's matches and 49% of Derby's.
Do Plymouth and Derby matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Plymouth's recent matches and 66% of Derby's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat Plymouth 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Plymouth 2-3 at Home Park, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.80 xG and Derby 1.10 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Derby outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.08 / defence 1.51 against Derby attack 0.71 / defence 1.24, drawn from 83/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 54% | Draw 24% | Derby 23%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Derby win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 54%, Derby 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Derby's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.01. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plymouth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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