Plymouth 1-1 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Plymouth face Cardiff.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plymouth and Cardiff meet at Home Park in Championship (matchday 34). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 February 2025 at 12:30 UK time.
Current Form
Plymouth's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cardiff have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Cardiff away from home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Plymouth's last 10 home games and Cardiff's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Plymouth's games and 80% of Cardiff's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Plymouth, 1 for Cardiff and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2024, ended Plymouth 0–5 Cardiff — a Cardiff win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (last 78 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cardiff half-time and goal-timing data (last 78 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 51% versus Cardiff 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 54% | Cardiff 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 2.49 xG and Cardiff 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.251 / defence 1.512 | Cardiff attack 1.053 / defence 1.466. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.032. Plymouth carry an above-average attack rating of 1.251 — their 2.49 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Cardiff's defence rating of 1.466 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Plymouth's projected output up. Plymouth's defence rating of 1.512 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cardiff's projected output up. Data: built from Plymouth's last 79 games and Cardiff's last 78.
Result probabilities: Plymouth 56% | Draw 19% | Cardiff 25%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.78 | Draw 5.18 | Cardiff 4.07. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS Yes probability 74% | Total xG 4.14. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.14 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% — both xG figures (2.49 / 1.64) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.14 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Plymouth's last 10 home games and Cardiff's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Plymouth 70% (last 10 home games) | Cardiff 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, matchday 34 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 56% | Draw 19% | Cardiff 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% (Under 22%) | BTTS Yes 74% (No 26%) | xG Plymouth 2.49 / Cardiff 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.251 / def 1.512 | Cardiff attack 1.053 / def 1.466 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Cardiff xG
74%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plymouth vs Cardiff FAQs
What time does Plymouth vs Cardiff kick off?
Plymouth vs Cardiff kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Plymouth 1 - 1 Cardiff.
Where is Plymouth vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Cardiff part of?
Plymouth vs Cardiff is a Championship fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 56% chance of winning, Cardiff a 25% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Plymouth and Cardiff will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plymouth vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 1.25x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 2.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cardiff's attack (1.05x) against Plymouth's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from Plymouth's last 79 games and Cardiff's last 78 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.4%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
56%
1.78
19%
5.18
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Plymouth xG
Total xG
4.14
1.64
Cardiff xG
1.78
56%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.88
Clean Sheet
19%
5.17
8%
12.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.21
2%
49.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plymouth vs Cardiff Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.64 for Cardiff, a combined total of 4.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 78 outings, Plymouth have picked up 0.99 PPG on a 18W 23D 37L record — D-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Cardiff's form line: 26W 16D 36L from 78 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.99 PPG for Plymouth against 1.21 for Cardiff. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 1.47 PPG from their last 38 home games (15W 11D 12L). That's noticeably better than their 0.99 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cardiff have gone 10W 9D 19L from their last 38 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.13 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Cardiff
Current Season
Plymouth (Home) vs Cardiff (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plymouth
Current Season
Cardiff
Current Season
❓ Plymouth vs Cardiff Form FAQs
What form are Plymouth and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 18W 23D 37L in their last 78 games (0.99 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 26W 16D 36L in their last 78 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Cardiff away?
Plymouth's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.47 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Plymouth and Cardiff, the earliest from December 2023. They cover more than one competition — Championship, League One. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cardiff won Cardiff 5-0 Plymouth on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cardiff — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Plymouth
2
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Plymouth vs Cardiff H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Cardiff?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Plymouth have won 2, Cardiff have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Cardiff last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Plymouth 5-2 Cardiff.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 60%, Cardiff 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Plymouth) and 55% (Cardiff). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cardiff in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plymouth vs Cardiff Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plymouth and Cardiff matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Plymouth's games and 55% of Cardiff's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Plymouth and Cardiff matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Plymouth's matches and 55% of Cardiff's.
Do Plymouth and Cardiff matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Plymouth's recent matches and 74% of Cardiff's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth and Cardiff share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Home Park, Regular Season - 34, as Plymouth and Cardiff drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 2.49 xG and Cardiff 1.64 xG, a combined 4.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Plymouth fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.25 / defence 1.51 against Cardiff attack 1.05 / defence 1.47, drawn from 79/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 56% | Draw 19% | Cardiff 25%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 54%, Cardiff 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Cardiff's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 0.99 PPG, Cardiff 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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