Nottingham Forest 1-2 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cardiff at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nottingham Forest vs Cardiff encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nottingham Forest and Cardiff meet at The City Ground in Championship, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 September 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Nottingham Forest (all games): 0W 1D 4L across 5 Championship fixtures this term — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Nottingham Forest have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cardiff's overall Championship record this term: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Cardiff have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cardiff are 1.40 PPG clear of Nottingham Forest in recent Championship fixtures (1.60 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Nottingham Forest register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Cardiff in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
Cardiff — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nottingham Forest 80% and Cardiff 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 60% | Cardiff 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.14 xG and Cardiff 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.932 / defence 1.329 | Cardiff attack 1.037 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.225. Data: 5 Nottingham Forest games / 5 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 24% | Draw 28% | Cardiff 48%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Cardiff 2.08. Cardiff hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cardiff if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nottingham Forest 80% | Cardiff 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 24% | Draw 28% | Cardiff 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.14 / Cardiff 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.932 / def 1.329 | Cardiff attack 1.037 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.068 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Cardiff xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Cardiff kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Cardiff kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Cardiff?
Nottingham Forest 1 - 2 Cardiff.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Cardiff part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 24% chance of winning, Cardiff a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Cardiff?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Cardiff in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Cardiff (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nottingham Forest's attack at 0.93x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cardiff's attack (1.04x) against Nottingham Forest's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
24%
4.17
28%
3.61
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.83
1.69
Cardiff xG
4.17
24%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
4%
22.57
15%
6.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.0 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.69 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nottingham Forest come into this having played 5 games, going 0W 1D 4L for 0.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cardiff sit at 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cardiff, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cardiff carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Nottingham Forest — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Nottingham Forest are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nottingham Forest have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Cardiff in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Early Season
Cardiff
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 games (0.20 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Nottingham Forest
0
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Cardiff?
From 2 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 0, Cardiff have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2022, when Cardiff 2-1 Nottingham Forest.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Cardiff?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Cardiff tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Nottingham Forest, 80% for Cardiff — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Nottingham Forest and 60% for Cardiff. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Cardiff?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Nottingham Forest's games and 80% of Cardiff's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Nottingham Forest's matches and 60% of Cardiff's.
Do Nottingham Forest and Cardiff tend to score early?
Nottingham Forest have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cardiff edge out Nottingham Forest 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat Nottingham Forest 1-2 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 6, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.14 xG and Cardiff 1.69 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.93 / defence 1.33 against Cardiff attack 1.04 / defence 1.15, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 24% | Draw 28% | Cardiff 48%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 60%, Cardiff 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Cardiff's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cardiff arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.