Norwich 6-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Norwich at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this Norwich vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Plymouth make the trip to Carrow Road to face Norwich in Championship, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Tuesday 26 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Norwich have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Norwich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norwich's home record at Carrow Road: 2W 7D 1L from 10 Championship appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Plymouth (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Norwich, 1.20 for Plymouth — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Norwich 1W, Plymouth 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with Norwich winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Norwich half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norwich 60% versus Plymouth 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norwich 56% | Plymouth 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norwich 2.31 xG and Plymouth 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norwich attack 1.300 / defence 1.078 | Plymouth attack 0.634 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.062. Norwich carry an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Plymouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Norwich's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Norwich games / 62 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norwich 72% | Draw 19% | Plymouth 9%. Fair-value odds: Norwich 1.39 | Draw 5.26 | Plymouth 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Norwich (72%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Norwich at 72% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Norwich 70% | Plymouth 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norwich vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Carrow Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norwich 72% | Draw 19% | Plymouth 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 47% | xG Norwich 2.31 / Plymouth 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Norwich attack 1.300 / def 1.078 | Plymouth attack 0.634 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Norwich (72%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Norwich xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Plymouth xG
47%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norwich vs Plymouth kick off?
Norwich vs Plymouth kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 26 November 2024 at Carrow Road.
What was the final score in Norwich vs Plymouth?
Norwich 6 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Norwich vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Carrow Road.
What competition is Norwich vs Plymouth part of?
Norwich vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Norwich vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Norwich a 72% chance of winning, Plymouth a 9% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Norwich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Norwich and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Norwich vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Plymouth?
Record (2 meetings): Norwich 1W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 1W.
What form are Norwich and Plymouth in?
Norwich (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Plymouth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Norwich vs Plymouth?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Norwich's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.31. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (0.63x) against Norwich's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 3-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norwich Win
72%
1.39
19%
5.39
9%
10.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Norwich xG
Total xG
3.03
0.72
Plymouth xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.39
19%
Draw
10.82
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
10%
10.04
Win to Nil
35%
2.86
1%
108.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norwich vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Norwich and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Norwich and 0.72 for Plymouth, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Norwich vs Plymouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Norwich have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 24W 17D 21L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Norwich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth's form line: 17W 17D 28L from 62 games, 1.10 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Norwich against 1.10 for Plymouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Norwich have posted 1.90 PPG from 30 outings (16W 9D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Norwich are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 3W 8D 19L from 30 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Norwich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Norwich are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.23 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norwich
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norwich and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Norwich have gone 24W 17D 21L in their last 62 games (1.44 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 17W 17D 28L in their last 62 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norwich at home or Plymouth away?
Norwich's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norwich at home: 1.90 PPG; Plymouth away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Norwich won 6-1 on 26 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Norwich have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Norwich
0
Draws
2
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Norwich have won 2, Plymouth have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Norwich and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Plymouth 2-1 Norwich.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Norwich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norwich 57%, Plymouth 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Norwich) and 47% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Norwich keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Plymouth in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norwich home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norwich play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Norwich's recent matches and 47% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Norwich vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Norwich's recent games and 47% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norwich and Plymouth tend to score early?
Norwich have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Norwich run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norwich beat Plymouth 6-1 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 2.31 xG and Plymouth 0.72 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Norwich beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 1.30 / defence 1.08 against Plymouth attack 0.63 / defence 1.32, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norwich 72% | Draw 19% | Plymouth 9%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 56%, Plymouth 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norwich's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Plymouth's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norwich 1.44 PPG, Plymouth 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Norwich win broke the near-deadlock. Norwich (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm. Plymouth (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.