Middlesbrough 4-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Middlesbrough at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Middlesbrough vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Derby travel to Riverside Stadium to take on Middlesbrough. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 February 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Middlesbrough have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Middlesbrough's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Riverside Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Riverside Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Derby — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Derby's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Middlesbrough are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Middlesbrough have won 0, Derby 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Middlesbrough in-play tendencies (29 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Derby in-play tendencies (29 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Middlesbrough 45% versus Derby 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Middlesbrough 31% | Derby 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Middlesbrough 1.22 xG and Derby 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Middlesbrough attack 0.961 / defence 0.927 | Derby attack 0.678 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.099. Data: 29 Middlesbrough games / 30 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Middlesbrough 49% | Draw 30% | Derby 21%. Fair-value odds: Middlesbrough 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Derby 4.76. Middlesbrough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Derby's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Middlesbrough are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Middlesbrough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Middlesbrough 30% | Derby 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Middlesbrough vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Riverside Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Middlesbrough 49% | Draw 30% | Derby 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 35% | xG Middlesbrough 1.22 / Derby 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Middlesbrough attack 0.961 / def 0.927 | Derby attack 0.678 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Middlesbrough xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Derby xG
35%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Middlesbrough vs Derby kick off?
Middlesbrough vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Riverside Stadium.
What was the final score in Middlesbrough vs Derby?
Middlesbrough 4 - 1 Derby.
Where is Middlesbrough vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Riverside Stadium.
What competition is Middlesbrough vs Derby part of?
Middlesbrough vs Derby is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Middlesbrough vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Middlesbrough a 49% chance of winning, Derby a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Middlesbrough and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Middlesbrough vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Derby?
Record (1 meetings): Middlesbrough 0W | Draws 1 | Derby 0W.
What form are Middlesbrough and Derby in?
Middlesbrough (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Derby (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Middlesbrough's attack at 0.96x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Middlesbrough's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
49%
2.04
30%
3.32
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Middlesbrough xG
Total xG
1.91
0.69
Derby xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
6%
16.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 10.2 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 12.5 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Middlesbrough vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Middlesbrough and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 0.69 for Derby, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Middlesbrough vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Middlesbrough's recent record stands at 13W 7D 9L from 29 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 9L across 29 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Middlesbrough on 1.59 PPG, Derby on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Middlesbrough have managed 9W 2D 4L from 15 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 2W 6D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Middlesbrough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Middlesbrough are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.03 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Middlesbrough have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Middlesbrough
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Middlesbrough and Derby in coming into this match?
Middlesbrough have gone 13W 7D 9L in their last 29 games (1.59 PPG), while Derby have gone 9W 11D 9L in their last 29 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Middlesbrough at home or Derby away?
Middlesbrough's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Middlesbrough at home: 1.93 PPG; Derby away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Middlesbrough or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Middlesbrough have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Derby in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Middlesbrough won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Middlesbrough's record when hosting Derby specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Middlesbrough
1
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Middlesbrough have won 3, Derby have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Middlesbrough and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Derby 1-0 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between Middlesbrough and Derby?
Middlesbrough have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Derby see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Middlesbrough 47%, Derby 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Middlesbrough and 33% for Derby.
On the defensive side: Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Derby in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Middlesbrough home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Middlesbrough play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Middlesbrough's recent matches and 47% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Middlesbrough vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Middlesbrough's recent games and 33% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Middlesbrough and Derby tend to score early?
Middlesbrough have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Derby in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Middlesbrough run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Derby.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Middlesbrough beat Derby 4-1 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.22 xG and Derby 0.69 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Middlesbrough beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Derby attack 0.68 / defence 1.19, drawn from 29/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 49% | Draw 30% | Derby 21%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 31%, Derby 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Middlesbrough's trading profile (29 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Derby's trading profile (29 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Middlesbrough 1.59 PPG, Derby 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.