Ipswich 0-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ipswich at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ipswich vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ipswich host QPR at Portman Road in Championship, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 December 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Ipswich — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Portman Road, Ipswich have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Ipswich are significantly better at Portman Road than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, QPR stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Ipswich carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ipswich, 0 for QPR and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Ipswich winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
QPR in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 51% versus QPR 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 60% | QPR 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 2.04 xG and QPR 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.410 / defence 1.191 | QPR attack 0.720 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.196. Ipswich carry an above-average attack strength of 1.410 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 24 Ipswich games / 70 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 61% | Draw 21% | QPR 18%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | QPR 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Ipswich (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ipswich at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 90% | QPR 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Friday 29 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 61% | Draw 21% | QPR 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Ipswich 2.04 / QPR 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.410 / def 1.191 | QPR attack 0.720 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.03
QPR xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs QPR kick off?
Ipswich vs QPR kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 29 December 2023 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs QPR?
Ipswich 0 - 0 QPR.
Where is Ipswich vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs QPR part of?
Ipswich vs QPR is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 61% chance of winning, QPR a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ipswich and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and QPR?
Record (1 meetings): Ipswich 1W | Draws 0 | QPR 0W.
What form are Ipswich and QPR in?
Ipswich (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. QPR (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ipswich's attack rating (1.41) and QPR's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.77
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Ipswich xG
Total xG
3.07
1.03
QPR xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
13%
7.68
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
2%
42.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Ipswich and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.03 for QPR, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs QPR?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ipswich's recent record stands at 44W 19D 7L from 70 games, a 2.16 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 18W 16D 36L across 70 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ipswich by 1.16 — a real, if not enormous, edge over QPR heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 25W 8D 2L from 35 games — 2.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 10W 8D 17L across 35 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ipswich are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 0.91 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and QPR in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 44W 19D 7L in their last 70 games (2.16 PPG), while QPR have gone 18W 16D 36L in their last 70 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or QPR away?
Ipswich's home record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 2.37 PPG; QPR away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Ipswich or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, QPR in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ipswich go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Nov 2025, when Ipswich won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ipswich's record when hosting QPR specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Ipswich
1
Draws
0
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and QPR?
From 4 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 3, QPR have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Ipswich 3-0 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and QPR?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 54%, QPR 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Ipswich) and 46% (QPR). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 49% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ipswich keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; QPR in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Ipswich's recent matches and 46% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ipswich vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Ipswich's matches and 46% of QPR's.
Do Ipswich and QPR tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, QPR in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ipswich's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich and QPR finished level at 0-0 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 25, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 2.04 xG and QPR 1.03 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ipswich fell 2.0 short of their projected output. QPR landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.41 / defence 1.19 against QPR attack 0.72 / defence 1.02, drawn from 24/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 61% | Draw 21% | QPR 18%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 60%, QPR 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
QPR's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.66 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.51 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.