Ipswich 3-1 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ipswich at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ipswich vs Birmingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Birmingham travel to Portman Road to take on Ipswich. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ipswich stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ipswich at Portman Road this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Ipswich are significantly better at Portman Road than their overall form suggests.
Birmingham — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Birmingham's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Ipswich carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ipswich, 0 for Birmingham and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ipswich trading profile (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Birmingham trading profile (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 53% versus Birmingham 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 62% | Birmingham 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 2.42 xG and Birmingham 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.390 / defence 1.286 | Birmingham attack 0.784 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.260. Ipswich carry an above-average attack strength of 1.390 — their λ of 2.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Birmingham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Ipswich's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Ipswich games / 78 Birmingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 63% | Draw 19% | Birmingham 19%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 1.59 | Draw 5.26 | Birmingham 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Ipswich (63%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ipswich as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 90% | Birmingham 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 63% | Draw 19% | Birmingham 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 65% | xG Ipswich 2.42 / Birmingham 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.390 / def 1.286 | Birmingham attack 0.784 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Birmingham xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Birmingham kick off?
Ipswich vs Birmingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Birmingham?
Ipswich 3 - 1 Birmingham.
Where is Ipswich vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Birmingham part of?
Ipswich vs Birmingham is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 63% chance of winning, Birmingham a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Ipswich and Birmingham will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Birmingham?
Record (1 meetings): Ipswich 0W | Draws 1 | Birmingham 0W.
What form are Ipswich and Birmingham in?
Ipswich (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Birmingham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ipswich's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Birmingham's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.42. The same calculation in reverse, Birmingham's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
63%
1.60
19%
5.39
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Ipswich xG
Total xG
3.69
1.27
Birmingham xG
1.60
63%
Home win
5.39
19%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
9%
11.19
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
2%
59.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.27 for Birmingham, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Birmingham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 78 outings, Ipswich have picked up 2.13 PPG on a 48W 22D 8L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Birmingham's form line: 24W 19D 35L from 78 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Ipswich are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Birmingham.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ipswich have posted 2.37 PPG from 38 outings (27W 9D 2L).
On the road, Birmingham have gone 10W 6D 22L from 38 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ipswich are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.08 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 48W 22D 8L in their last 78 games (2.13 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 24W 19D 35L in their last 78 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Birmingham away?
Ipswich's home record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 2.37 PPG; Birmingham away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Birmingham in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ipswich and Birmingham runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ipswich's record when hosting Birmingham specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ipswich
2
Draws
0
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Birmingham?
From 4 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 2, Birmingham have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Birmingham last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Ipswich 2-1 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Birmingham?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 55%, Birmingham 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Ipswich) and 45% (Birmingham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ipswich keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Birmingham in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Birmingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Ipswich's recent matches and 47% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ipswich vs Birmingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Ipswich's matches and 45% of Birmingham's.
Do Ipswich and Birmingham tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Birmingham in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ipswich cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Birmingham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Birmingham 3-1 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 2.42 xG and Birmingham 1.27 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.39 / defence 1.29 against Birmingham attack 0.78 / defence 1.26, drawn from 33/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 63% | Draw 19% | Birmingham 19%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 62%, Birmingham 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Birmingham's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Birmingham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.