Hull City 2-0 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hull City face Plymouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Plymouth travel to The MKM Stadium to take on Hull City in Championship (matchday 35). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 4 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hull City stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Hull City's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Plymouth — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 0W 4D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hull City at 1.10 PPG versus Plymouth's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Hull City, 1 for Plymouth and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2024, ended Hull City 1–1 Plymouth — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Hull City trading profile (last 80 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Plymouth trading profile (last 80 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 58% versus Plymouth 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 49% | Plymouth 54%). Note also that Plymouth surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Hull City recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.65 xG and Plymouth 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.844 / defence 1.236 | Plymouth attack 0.654 / defence 1.450. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.033. Plymouth's defence rating of 1.450 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hull City's projected output up. Plymouth's attack rating of 0.654 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Hull City's defence rating of 1.236 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Plymouth's projected output up. Data: built from Hull City's last 80 games and Plymouth's last 80.
Result probabilities: Hull City 56% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 18%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 1.77 | Draw 3.99 | Plymouth 5.41. The model has a clear lean to Hull City (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hull City 70% (last 10 home games) | Plymouth 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, matchday 35 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 56% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Hull City 1.65 / Plymouth 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.844 / def 1.236 | Plymouth attack 0.654 / def 1.450 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Hull City (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Plymouth xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs Plymouth FAQs
What time does Hull City vs Plymouth kick off?
Hull City vs Plymouth kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 4 March 2025 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Plymouth?
Hull City 2 - 0 Plymouth.
Where is Hull City vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Plymouth part of?
Hull City vs Plymouth is a Championship fixture (matchday 35) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 56% chance of winning, Plymouth a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hull City and Plymouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Hull City vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hull City's attack rating (0.84) and Plymouth's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 80 games and Plymouth's last 80 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
56%
1.77
25%
3.99
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.49
0.83
Plymouth xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
4%
28.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs Plymouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Hull City and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Hull City and 0.83 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Plymouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 80 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 27W 22D 31L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Plymouth's form line: 19W 24D 37L from 80 games, 1.01 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.29 PPG, Plymouth on 1.01. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.15 PPG from their last 40 home games (10W 16D 14L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 3W 12D 25L from their last 40 away games — 0.52 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.01 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hull City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hull City are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.19 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 80 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
Hull City (Home) vs Plymouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Hull City vs Plymouth Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 27W 22D 31L in their last 80 games (1.29 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 19W 24D 37L in their last 80 (1.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Plymouth away?
Hull City's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.15 PPG; Plymouth away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 4 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hull City's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hull City
2
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs Plymouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Plymouth?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 1, Plymouth have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Plymouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 March 2025: Hull City 2-0 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 58% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 62%, Plymouth 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Hull City) and 45% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Plymouth in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs Plymouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and Plymouth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Hull City's recent matches and 42% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hull City and Plymouth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Hull City's recent games and 45% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Plymouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Hull City's recent matches and 68% of Plymouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Plymouth 2-0 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.65 xG and Plymouth 0.83 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Plymouth landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.84 / defence 1.24 against Plymouth attack 0.65 / defence 1.45, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 56% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 18%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 49%, Plymouth 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Plymouth's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.29 PPG, Plymouth 1.01 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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