Fulham 1-1 Middlesbrough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Middlesbrough at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Middlesbrough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Middlesbrough make the trip to Craven Cottage to face Fulham in Championship, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 August 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.03 xG and Middlesbrough 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Middlesbrough attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.409. Data: 0 Fulham games / 0 Middlesbrough games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fulham 24% | Draw 35% | Middlesbrough 41%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 4.17 | Draw 2.86 | Middlesbrough 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Middlesbrough at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Middlesbrough if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Middlesbrough | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 24% | Draw 35% | Middlesbrough 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Fulham 1.03 / Middlesbrough 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Middlesbrough attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Middlesbrough xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Middlesbrough kick off?
Fulham vs Middlesbrough kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Middlesbrough?
Fulham 1 - 1 Middlesbrough.
Where is Fulham vs Middlesbrough being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Middlesbrough part of?
Fulham vs Middlesbrough is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Middlesbrough?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 24% chance of winning, Middlesbrough a 41% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Middlesbrough?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Fulham and Middlesbrough will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Middlesbrough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Middlesbrough?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fulham and Middlesbrough in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fulham's attack rating (0.85) and Middlesbrough's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Middlesbrough's attack (0.85x) against Fulham's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
The sample (0/0 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
24%
4.10
35%
2.88
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.41
1.38
Middlesbrough xG
4.10
24%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
6%
16.26
15%
6.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Middlesbrough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Fulham and Middlesbrough expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Fulham and 1.38 for Middlesbrough, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Middlesbrough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Pre-Season
Middlesbrough
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Fulham
1
Draws
0
Middlesbrough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Middlesbrough?
From 2 meetings on record, Fulham have won 1, Middlesbrough have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Middlesbrough last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2022, when Middlesbrough 0-1 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Middlesbrough?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Middlesbrough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Fulham and Middlesbrough share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 1, as Fulham and Middlesbrough drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.03 xG and Middlesbrough 1.38 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Middlesbrough attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 24% | Draw 35% | Middlesbrough 41%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.