Derby 2-1 Stoke City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Derby take on Stoke City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stoke City make the trip to Pride Park Stadium to face Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Derby (all games): 1W 4D 2L across 7 Championship fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 0.57 goals per game and conceding 0.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 0L across 3 games at Pride Park Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stoke City's overall Championship record this term: 4W 2D 1L from 7 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Stoke City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Stoke City have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Stoke City are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Derby — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Stoke City — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 43% versus Stoke City 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Derby 14% | Stoke City 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.04 xG and Stoke City 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.812 / defence 0.986 | Stoke City attack 0.808 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.015 / away 1.268. Stoke City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Derby games / 7 Stoke City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 33% | Draw 36% | Stoke City 31%. Fair-value odds: Derby 3.03 | Draw 2.78 | Stoke City 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Derby 67% | Stoke City 33%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Stoke City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 33% | Draw 36% | Stoke City 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Derby 1.04 / Stoke City 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.812 / def 0.986 | Stoke City attack 0.808 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.015 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Stoke City xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Stoke City kick off?
Derby vs Stoke City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Stoke City?
Derby 2 - 1 Stoke City.
Where is Derby vs Stoke City being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Stoke City part of?
Derby vs Stoke City is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Stoke City?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 33% chance of winning, Stoke City a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Stoke City?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Derby and Stoke City will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Stoke City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derby and Stoke City in?
Derby (all comps): 1W-4D-2L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 0.86 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Stoke City (all comps): 4W-2D-1L in 7 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.14 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Derby's attack at 0.81x the league average against Stoke City's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stoke City's attack (0.81x) against Derby's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.04
36%
2.78
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Derby xG
Total xG
2.05
1.01
Stoke City xG
3.04
33%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Derby and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Derby and 1.01 for Stoke City, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Stoke City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 4D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Stoke City sit at 2.00 PPG from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Stoke City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stoke City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Derby — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Derby's home form reads 0W 3D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Stoke City have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stoke City's season.
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Stoke City are on 1.43 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Early Season
Stoke City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Stoke City in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 1W 4D 2L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Stoke City have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Stoke City away?
Stoke City's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.00 PPG; Stoke City away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Derby or Stoke City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Stoke City in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stoke City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Derby
1
Draws
2
Stoke City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Stoke City?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Stoke City have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Stoke City last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Derby 2-0 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Stoke City?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 67%, Stoke City 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Derby and 67% for Stoke City.
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stoke City in 33%; Derby have failed to score in 33% of games; Stoke City in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Stoke City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Stoke City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Derby's recent matches and 33% of Stoke City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Stoke City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Derby's recent games and 67% of Stoke City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Stoke City tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Stoke City in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Stoke City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Stoke City 2-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.04 xG and Stoke City 1.01 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Derby beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.81 / defence 0.99 against Stoke City attack 0.81 / defence 1.26, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 33% | Draw 36% | Stoke City 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Derby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 14%, Stoke City 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Stoke City's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stoke City arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Derby winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Derby (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.