Derby 2-1 Sheffield Wednesday – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Sheffield Wednesday at Pride Park in Championship, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Derby — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derby at Pride Park this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Sheffield Wednesday have recorded 0W 0D 10L from 10 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Sheffield Wednesday's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Derby are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 1.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Derby, 3 for Sheffield Wednesday and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2025, ended 3–0 with Derby winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (81 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Sheffield Wednesday in-play and half-time data (81 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 56% versus Sheffield Wednesday 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 44% | Sheffield Wednesday 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.85 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.019 / defence 1.006 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.596 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.212. Sheffield Wednesday bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 81 Derby games / 81 Sheffield Wednesday games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 63% | Draw 24% | Sheffield Wednesday 13%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.59 | Draw 4.17 | Sheffield Wednesday 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Derby (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Sheffield Wednesday lead the H2H ledger, but Derby carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Derby 80% | Sheffield Wednesday 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 63% | Draw 24% | Sheffield Wednesday 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 45% | xG Derby 1.85 / Sheffield Wednesday 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.019 / def 1.006 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.596 / def 1.391 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Derby (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Sheffield Wednesday xG
45%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday kick off?
Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Pride Park.
What was the final score in Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Derby 2 - 1 Sheffield Wednesday.
Where is Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday part of?
Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 63% chance of winning, Sheffield Wednesday a 13% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Derby and Sheffield Wednesday will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Sheffield Wednesday?
Record (5 meetings): Derby 1W | Draws 1 | Sheffield Wednesday 3W.
What form are Derby and Sheffield Wednesday in?
Derby (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Derby's attack rating (1.02) and Sheffield Wednesday's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sheffield Wednesday's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 81/81 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
63%
1.58
24%
4.16
13%
7.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Derby xG
Total xG
2.58
0.73
Sheffield Wednesday xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
7.77
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
31%
3.27
2%
49.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Derby and Sheffield Wednesday expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Derby and 0.73 for Sheffield Wednesday, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 81 outings, Derby have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 27W 20D 34L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Sheffield Wednesday's form line: 16W 21D 44L from 81 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Derby are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sheffield Wednesday.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.32 PPG from 40 outings (14W 11D 15L).
On the road, Sheffield Wednesday have gone 10W 9D 21L from 40 away games — 0.98 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Wednesday are on 1.00 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 81 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Sheffield Wednesday
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Sheffield Wednesday in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 27W 20D 34L in their last 81 games (1.25 PPG), while Sheffield Wednesday have gone 16W 21D 44L in their last 81 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Sheffield Wednesday away?
Derby's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.32 PPG; Sheffield Wednesday away: 0.98 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derby and Sheffield Wednesday runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Dec 2025, when Derby won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derby's record when hosting Sheffield Wednesday specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Derby
1
Draws
3
Sheffield Wednesday
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Sheffield Wednesday?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 2, Sheffield Wednesday have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Sheffield Wednesday last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Derby 2-1 Sheffield Wednesday.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Sheffield Wednesday?
Sheffield Wednesday have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 50%, Sheffield Wednesday 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Derby) and 62% (Sheffield Wednesday).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sheffield Wednesday in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Sheffield Wednesday away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Sheffield Wednesday?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Derby's recent matches and 50% of Sheffield Wednesday's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Derby's recent games and 62% of Sheffield Wednesday's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Sheffield Wednesday tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sheffield Wednesday in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Sheffield Wednesday 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.85 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 0.73 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.02 / defence 1.01 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.60 / defence 1.39, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 63% | Draw 24% | Sheffield Wednesday 13%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 44%, Sheffield Wednesday 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. Derby (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.