Derby 2-2 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Cardiff fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cardiff make the trip to Pride Park to face Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Derby (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby at Pride Park this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cardiff's overall Championship record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cardiff have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cardiff's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Derby, 1.60 for Cardiff — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Derby have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Cardiff in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Derby 1W, Cardiff 3W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2025, ended 1–2 with Cardiff winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Derby — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Cardiff — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Derby 66% and Cardiff 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 53% | Cardiff 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.59 xG and Cardiff 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.027 / defence 0.941 | Cardiff attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.267. Data: 47 Derby games / 1 Cardiff games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Derby 49% | Draw 30% | Cardiff 22%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Cardiff 4.55. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Derby 60% | Cardiff 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 49% | Draw 30% | Cardiff 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Derby 1.59 / Cardiff 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.027 / def 0.941 | Cardiff attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Derby (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Cardiff xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Cardiff kick off?
Derby vs Cardiff kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Pride Park.
What was the final score in Derby vs Cardiff?
Derby 2 - 2 Cardiff.
Where is Derby vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Cardiff part of?
Derby vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 49% chance of winning, Cardiff a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Derby and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Cardiff?
Record (4 meetings): Derby 1W | Draws 0 | Cardiff 3W.
What form are Derby and Cardiff in?
Derby (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Cardiff (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Derby's attack at 1.03x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cardiff's attack (0.85x) against Derby's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
The sample (47/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
49%
2.06
30%
3.39
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Derby xG
Total xG
2.60
1.01
Cardiff xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
4%
22.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Derby and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Derby and 1.01 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby's recent record stands at 20W 9D 18L from 47 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cardiff, meanwhile, have gone 27W 11D 9L across 47 games — 1.96 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cardiff, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cardiff by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Derby heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Derby have managed 10W 6D 7L from 23 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cardiff's away record stands at 10W 8D 5L across 23 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.94 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cardiff in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Early Season
Cardiff
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 20W 9D 18L in their last 47 games (1.47 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 27W 11D 9L in their last 47 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Cardiff away?
Cardiff's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.57 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Derby or Cardiff been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Cardiff in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cardiff — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Derby
1
Draws
3
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Cardiff?
From 5 meetings on record, Derby have won 1, Cardiff have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Derby 2-2 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Cardiff?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 65%, Cardiff 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Derby) and 48% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Cardiff in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Cardiff?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Derby's games and 61% of Cardiff's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Derby's recent games and 48% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Cardiff tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby and Cardiff share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby and Cardiff finished level at 2-2 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.59 xG and Cardiff 1.01 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cardiff outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.03 / defence 0.94 against Cardiff attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Derby 49% | Draw 30% | Cardiff 22%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 53%, Cardiff 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Cardiff's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cardiff arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.47. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cardiff (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.