Derby 1-0 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Cardiff encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cardiff make the trip to Pride Park Stadium to face Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Derby (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby at Pride Park Stadium this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Cardiff's overall Championship record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cardiff have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cardiff's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Derby's favour (2.00 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Derby 0W, Cardiff 2W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 0–1 with Cardiff winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Derby — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Cardiff — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 46% versus Cardiff 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 56% | Cardiff 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.95 xG and Cardiff 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.055 / defence 0.854 | Cardiff attack 0.895 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.125. Cardiff bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Derby games / 50 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 63% | Draw 21% | Cardiff 16%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Cardiff 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Derby (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Derby 20% | Cardiff 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 63% | Draw 21% | Cardiff 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 49% | xG Derby 1.95 / Cardiff 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.055 / def 0.854 | Cardiff attack 0.895 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Derby (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Cardiff xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Cardiff kick off?
Derby vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Cardiff?
Derby 1 - 0 Cardiff.
Where is Derby vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Cardiff part of?
Derby vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 63% chance of winning, Cardiff a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Derby and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Cardiff?
Record (2 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 0 | Cardiff 2W.
What form are Derby and Cardiff in?
Derby (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Cardiff (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Derby's attack at 1.05x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cardiff's attack (0.90x) against Derby's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 4/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.70
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Derby xG
Total xG
2.81
0.86
Cardiff xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
2%
43.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.1 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Derby and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Derby and 0.86 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Cardiff?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby's recent record stands at 30W 8D 12L from 50 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cardiff, meanwhile, have gone 19W 6D 25L across 50 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cardiff, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cardiff heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Derby have managed 17W 4D 4L from 25 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cardiff's away record stands at 9W 3D 13L across 25 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.08 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Early Season
Cardiff
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 30W 8D 12L in their last 50 games (1.96 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 19W 6D 25L in their last 50 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Cardiff away?
Derby's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 2.20 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Derby or Cardiff been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Cardiff in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cardiff — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Derby
0
Draws
3
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Cardiff?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 1, Cardiff have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Cardiff 2-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Cardiff?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 48%, Cardiff 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Derby) and 56% (Cardiff). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Cardiff in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Derby's recent matches and 48% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Derby's matches and 56% of Cardiff's.
Do Derby and Cardiff tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Cardiff 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Cardiff 1-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.95 xG and Cardiff 0.86 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Derby fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cardiff landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.05 / defence 0.85 against Cardiff attack 0.90 / defence 1.32, drawn from 4/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 63% | Draw 21% | Cardiff 16%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 56%, Cardiff 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cardiff's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points. Derby (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.