Derby vs Bolton – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bolton at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 15 as Derby welcome Bolton to Pride Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Derby — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's home record at Pride Park: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bolton stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bolton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bolton away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Bolton's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Derby's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Derby, 1 for Bolton and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Derby winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Bolton in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Derby 63% and Bolton 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 53% | Bolton 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.14 xG and Bolton 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.720 / defence 1.118 | Bolton attack 1.044 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.305. Derby's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 Derby games / 11 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 28% | Draw 25% | Bolton 46%. Fair-value odds: Derby 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Bolton 2.17. Bolton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bolton as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bolton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Derby 40% | Bolton 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Bolton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Friday 6 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 28% | Draw 25% | Bolton 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Derby 1.14 / Bolton 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.720 / def 1.118 | Bolton attack 1.044 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Bolton (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Bolton xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Bolton kick off?
Derby vs Bolton is scheduled to kick off at 20:00 on Friday 6 November 2026 at Pride Park.
Where is Derby vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Bolton part of?
Derby vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 28% chance of winning, Bolton a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Derby and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Bolton?
Record (4 meetings): Derby 2W | Draws 1 | Bolton 1W.
What form are Derby and Bolton in?
Derby (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Bolton (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derby's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Bolton's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
28%
3.52
25%
3.93
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Derby xG
Total xG
2.66
1.52
Bolton xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
6%
16.13
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.6 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Derby and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Derby and 1.52 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Derby have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 21W 12D 24L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bolton's form line: 25W 19D 13L from 57 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Bolton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.32 PPG, Bolton on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.36 PPG from 28 outings (10W 8D 10L).
On the road, Bolton have gone 9W 11D 8L from 28 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.54 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Bolton in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Bolton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Bolton in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 21W 12D 24L in their last 57 games (1.32 PPG), while Bolton have gone 25W 19D 13L in their last 57 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Bolton away?
Derby's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.36 PPG; Bolton away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Derby's record when hosting Bolton specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Derby
1
Draws
1
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Bolton?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 2, Bolton have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Derby 1-0 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Bolton?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 61%, Bolton 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Derby) and 39% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Bolton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Bolton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Derby's games and 57% of Bolton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Derby's recent games and 39% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Bolton tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bolton in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.