Derby 1-0 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Birmingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 39 as Derby welcome Birmingham to Pride Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 March 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Pride Park, Derby have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Birmingham stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Birmingham away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Derby 1.60 PPG, Birmingham 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Derby, 1 for Birmingham and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (84 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Birmingham in-play and half-time data (84 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 55% versus Birmingham 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 44% | Birmingham 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.59 xG and Birmingham 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.029 / defence 1.021 | Birmingham attack 0.748 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.188. Data: 84 Derby games / 38 Birmingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 52% | Draw 27% | Birmingham 20%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Birmingham 5.00. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Derby 80% | Birmingham 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 52% | Draw 27% | Birmingham 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Derby 1.59 / Birmingham 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.029 / def 1.021 | Birmingham attack 0.748 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Derby (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Birmingham xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Birmingham kick off?
Derby vs Birmingham kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Pride Park.
What was the final score in Derby vs Birmingham?
Derby 1 - 0 Birmingham.
Where is Derby vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Birmingham part of?
Derby vs Birmingham is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 52% chance of winning, Birmingham a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Derby and Birmingham will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Birmingham?
Record (3 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 2 | Birmingham 1W.
What form are Derby and Birmingham in?
Derby (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Birmingham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Derby's attack at 1.03x the league average against Birmingham's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Birmingham's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 84/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.68
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Derby xG
Total xG
2.50
0.91
Birmingham xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
4%
23.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Derby and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Derby and 0.91 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derby come into this having played 84 games, going 29W 20D 35L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Birmingham sit at 1.95 PPG from 84 outings (48W 20D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Birmingham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Derby — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Derby's home form reads 16W 11D 15L across 42 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Birmingham have taken 1.62 points per game from 42 outings (20W 8D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.57 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Birmingham in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 84 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 29W 20D 35L in their last 84 games (1.27 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 48W 20D 16L in their last 84 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Birmingham away?
Birmingham's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.40 PPG; Birmingham away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Derby or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Birmingham in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derby and Birmingham runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby's record when hosting Birmingham specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Derby
2
Draws
1
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Birmingham?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 1, Birmingham have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Birmingham last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Derby 1-0 Birmingham.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 50%, Birmingham 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Derby) and 48% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Birmingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Derby's recent matches and 52% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Birmingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Derby's recent games and 48% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Birmingham tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Birmingham in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Birmingham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Birmingham 1-0 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 39, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.59 xG and Birmingham 0.91 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Birmingham landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Birmingham attack 0.75 / defence 1.18, drawn from 84/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 52% | Draw 27% | Birmingham 20%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 44%, Birmingham 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Birmingham's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Derby winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.02 average — tighter than their form line. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.