Coventry 1-2 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coventry at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coventry vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Coventry and QPR meet at The Coventry Building Society Arena in Championship, Regular Season - 46. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Coventry (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Coventry's home record at The Coventry Building Society Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
QPR have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, QPR have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Coventry against 1.50 for QPR. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Coventry, 2 for QPR and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with Coventry winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Coventry half-time and goal-timing data (91 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (91 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coventry 50% versus QPR 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coventry 46% | QPR 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coventry 1.30 xG and QPR 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coventry attack 1.125 / defence 1.198 | QPR attack 0.761 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.156. Data: 91 Coventry games / 91 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coventry 42% | Draw 28% | QPR 30%. Fair-value odds: Coventry 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | QPR 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coventry at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coventry if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Coventry 80% | QPR 30%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coventry vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: The Coventry Building Society Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coventry 42% | Draw 28% | QPR 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Coventry 1.30 / QPR 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Coventry attack 1.125 / def 1.198 | QPR attack 0.761 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Coventry (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Coventry xG
Expected Goals
1.05
QPR xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coventry vs QPR kick off?
Coventry vs QPR kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What was the final score in Coventry vs QPR?
Coventry 1 - 2 QPR.
Where is Coventry vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What competition is Coventry vs QPR part of?
Coventry vs QPR is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Coventry vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Coventry a 42% chance of winning, QPR a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Coventry the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coventry vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Coventry and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Coventry vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and QPR?
Record (5 meetings): Coventry 3W | Draws 0 | QPR 2W.
What form are Coventry and QPR in?
Coventry (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. QPR (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Coventry's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.76x) against Coventry's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 91/91 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coventry Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.61
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Coventry xG
Total xG
2.36
1.05
QPR xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
8%
12.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coventry vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Coventry and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Coventry and 1.05 for QPR, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Coventry vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Coventry come into this having played 91 games, going 36W 30D 25L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, QPR sit at 1.13 PPG from 91 outings (27W 22D 42L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Coventry against 1.13 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Coventry's home form reads 19W 17D 9L across 45 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, QPR have taken 1.18 points per game from 45 outings (14W 11D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coventry come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coventry are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 0.98 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 91 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coventry
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coventry and QPR in coming into this match?
Coventry have gone 36W 30D 25L in their last 91 games (1.52 PPG), while QPR have gone 27W 22D 42L in their last 91 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coventry at home or QPR away?
Coventry's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coventry at home: 1.64 PPG; QPR away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Coventry or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, QPR in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coventry won 7-1 on 23 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coventry have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Coventry
1
Draws
4
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, Coventry have won 5, QPR have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coventry and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when QPR 2-1 Coventry.
Who has won more matches between Coventry and QPR?
Coventry have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coventry 51%, QPR 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Coventry) and 42% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Coventry keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; QPR in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coventry home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coventry play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Coventry's recent matches and 42% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coventry vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Coventry's recent games and 42% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coventry and QPR tend to score early?
Coventry have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, QPR in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as QPR defy the odds to beat Coventry 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Coventry 1-2 at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 46, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.30 xG and QPR 1.05 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. QPR outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.12 / defence 1.20 against QPR attack 0.76 / defence 0.86, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coventry 42% | Draw 28% | QPR 30%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 46%, QPR 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coventry's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
QPR's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coventry 1.52 PPG, QPR 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Coventry (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. QPR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.