Charlton 1-0 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Preston fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Valley plays host to Charlton versus Preston in Championship, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 29 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charlton have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Charlton have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 4W 0D 6L at The Valley — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Preston's overall Championship record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Preston have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Preston's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Charlton have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Preston in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Charlton 0W, Preston 2W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Preston winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Preston goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 56% versus Preston 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 42% | Preston 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.49 xG and Preston 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.986 / defence 0.955 | Preston attack 0.950 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.315. Data: 48 Charlton games / 48 Preston games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Charlton 41% | Draw 32% | Preston 27%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Preston 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 60% | Preston 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (48 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 41% | Draw 32% | Preston 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Charlton 1.49 / Preston 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.986 / def 0.955 | Preston attack 0.950 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Charlton (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Preston xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Preston kick off?
Charlton vs Preston kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Preston?
Charlton 1 - 0 Preston.
Where is Charlton vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Preston part of?
Charlton vs Preston is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 41% chance of winning, Preston a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Charlton and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Preston?
Record (2 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 0 | Preston 2W.
What form are Charlton and Preston in?
Charlton (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Preston (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Charlton's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Preston's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Preston's attack (0.95x) against Charlton's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
The sample (48/48 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
41%
2.46
32%
3.11
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.68
1.19
Preston xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
6%
16.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Charlton and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Charlton and 1.19 for Preston, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Charlton come into this having played 48 games, going 15W 14D 19L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Preston sit at 1.25 PPG from 48 outings (15W 15D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Preston, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Charlton against 1.25 for Preston. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Charlton's home form reads 10W 4D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Preston have taken 1.21 points per game from 24 outings (7W 8D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charlton are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.19 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preston in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Early Season
Preston
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Preston in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 15W 14D 19L in their last 48 games (1.23 PPG), while Preston have gone 15W 15D 18L in their last 48 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Preston away?
Charlton's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.42 PPG; Preston away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Preston — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Charlton
0
Draws
2
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Preston?
From 3 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Preston have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Charlton 1-0 Preston.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Preston?
Preston have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 54%, Preston 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Charlton) and 50% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Preston?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Charlton's games and 62% of Preston's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Charlton's recent games and 50% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Preston tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Preston in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Preston 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Preston 1-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 3, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.49 xG and Preston 1.19 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Preston landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.99 / defence 0.95 against Preston attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 48/48 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 41% | Draw 32% | Preston 27%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 42%, Preston 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Preston's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.23 PPG, Preston 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.