Charlton 0-0 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Portsmouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Portsmouth make the trip to The Valley to face Charlton in Championship, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Charlton's overall Championship record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Charlton have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 4W 1D 5L at The Valley — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Portsmouth (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Portsmouth have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Portsmouth's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Charlton against 1.60 for Portsmouth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Charlton lead 3W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2026, ended 1–3 with Portsmouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Charlton — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Portsmouth — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 55% versus Portsmouth 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 41% | Portsmouth 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.36 xG and Portsmouth 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.811 / defence 0.763 | Portsmouth attack 1.129 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.234. Charlton's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Charlton games / 51 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 40% | Draw 34% | Portsmouth 26%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Portsmouth 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 50% | Portsmouth 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Portsmouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 40% | Draw 34% | Portsmouth 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Charlton 1.36 / Portsmouth 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.811 / def 0.763 | Portsmouth attack 1.129 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Charlton (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Portsmouth xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Portsmouth kick off?
Charlton vs Portsmouth kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Charlton 0 - 0 Portsmouth.
Where is Charlton vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Portsmouth part of?
Charlton vs Portsmouth is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 40% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Charlton and Portsmouth will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Portsmouth?
Record (8 meetings): Charlton 3W | Draws 3 | Portsmouth 2W.
What form are Charlton and Portsmouth in?
Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Portsmouth (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.81x the league average against Portsmouth's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Portsmouth's attack (1.13x) against Charlton's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
40%
2.49
34%
2.95
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.42
1.06
Portsmouth xG
2.49
40%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
7%
15.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Charlton and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Charlton and 1.06 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 15W 16D 20L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Portsmouth's form line: 16W 13D 22L from 51 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Portsmouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Charlton against 1.20 for Portsmouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.40 PPG from 25 outings (10W 5D 10L).
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 7W 7D 11L from 25 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charlton are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.10 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Early Season
Portsmouth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 15W 16D 20L in their last 51 games (1.20 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 16W 13D 22L in their last 51 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Portsmouth away?
Charlton's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.40 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charlton won 3-0 on 17 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Portsmouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Charlton
4
Draws
2
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Portsmouth?
From 9 meetings on record, Charlton have won 3, Portsmouth have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Portsmouth last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Charlton 0-0 Portsmouth.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Portsmouth?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 52%, Portsmouth 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Charlton) and 52% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Portsmouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Charlton's games and 64% of Portsmouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Portsmouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Charlton's recent games and 52% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Portsmouth tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Portsmouth in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Charlton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton and Portsmouth finished level at 0-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 7, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.36 xG and Portsmouth 1.06 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Charlton fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Portsmouth landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.81 / defence 0.76 against Portsmouth attack 1.13 / defence 1.13, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 40% | Draw 34% | Portsmouth 26%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 41%, Portsmouth 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Portsmouth's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.20 PPG, Portsmouth 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.