Cardiff 1-3 Middlesbrough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Middlesbrough at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs Middlesbrough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 31 as Cardiff welcome Middlesbrough to Cardiff City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Middlesbrough — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Middlesbrough's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Middlesbrough — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cardiff, 2 for Middlesbrough and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2022, ended 3–2 with Cardiff winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cardiff trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Middlesbrough trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 43% versus Middlesbrough 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 42% | Middlesbrough 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.01 xG and Middlesbrough 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.706 / defence 0.939 | Middlesbrough attack 1.181 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.158. Cardiff's attack strength of 0.706 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 76 Cardiff games / 76 Middlesbrough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 29% | Draw 28% | Middlesbrough 43%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Middlesbrough 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Middlesbrough as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Middlesbrough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cardiff 40% | Middlesbrough 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Middlesbrough | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 29% | Draw 28% | Middlesbrough 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Cardiff 1.01 / Middlesbrough 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.706 / def 0.939 | Middlesbrough attack 1.181 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Middlesbrough xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Middlesbrough kick off?
Cardiff vs Middlesbrough kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Middlesbrough?
Cardiff 1 - 3 Middlesbrough.
Where is Cardiff vs Middlesbrough being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Middlesbrough part of?
Cardiff vs Middlesbrough is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Middlesbrough?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 29% chance of winning, Middlesbrough a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Middlesbrough?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cardiff and Middlesbrough will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Middlesbrough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Middlesbrough?
Record (3 meetings): Cardiff 1W | Draws 0 | Middlesbrough 2W.
What form are Cardiff and Middlesbrough in?
Cardiff (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Middlesbrough (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cardiff's attack at 0.71x the league average against Middlesbrough's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Middlesbrough's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
29%
3.44
28%
3.53
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.29
1.28
Middlesbrough xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
8%
12.44
16%
6.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Middlesbrough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Middlesbrough expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.28 for Middlesbrough, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Middlesbrough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cardiff come into this having played 76 games, going 22W 16D 38L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Middlesbrough sit at 1.55 PPG from 76 outings (34W 16D 26L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Middlesbrough carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Cardiff — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Cardiff's home form reads 11W 9D 18L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Middlesbrough have taken 1.18 points per game from 38 outings (12W 9D 17L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cardiff are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Middlesbrough are on 1.39 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Current Season
Middlesbrough
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Middlesbrough in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 22W 16D 38L in their last 76 games (1.08 PPG), while Middlesbrough have gone 34W 16D 26L in their last 76 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Middlesbrough away?
Middlesbrough's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.11 PPG; Middlesbrough away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Middlesbrough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Middlesbrough in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2024, when Middlesbrough won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cardiff's record when hosting Middlesbrough specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cardiff
1
Draws
6
Middlesbrough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Middlesbrough?
From 8 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 1, Middlesbrough have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Middlesbrough last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2025, when Middlesbrough 1-1 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 40%, Middlesbrough 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Cardiff) and 53% (Middlesbrough).
On the defensive side: Cardiff have failed to score in 42% of games; Middlesbrough in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Middlesbrough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Middlesbrough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cardiff's recent matches and 55% of Middlesbrough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Middlesbrough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cardiff's recent games and 53% of Middlesbrough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Middlesbrough tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Middlesbrough in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Middlesbrough cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Middlesbrough beat Cardiff 1-3 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.01 xG and Middlesbrough 1.28 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Middlesbrough outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.71 / defence 0.94 against Middlesbrough attack 1.18 / defence 1.14, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 29% | Draw 28% | Middlesbrough 43%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 42%, Middlesbrough 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Middlesbrough's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Middlesbrough arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Cardiff (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.