Cardiff 0-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cardiff host Fulham at Cardiff City Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cardiff — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cardiff's home record at Cardiff City Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Championship appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Championship games this season, Fulham have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fulham's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fulham are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cardiff, 1 for Fulham and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Fulham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cardiff in-play and half-time data (32 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Fulham in-play and half-time data (32 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 53% versus Fulham 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 59% | Fulham 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.06 xG and Fulham 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 1.026 / defence 1.167 | Fulham attack 1.543 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.069 / away 1.069. Fulham have an above-average attack strength of 1.543 — the away xG of 1.92 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Cardiff games / 32 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 20% | Draw 22% | Fulham 58%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 5.00 | Draw 4.55 | Fulham 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Cardiff 40% | Fulham 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Fulham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 20% | Draw 22% | Fulham 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Cardiff 1.06 / Fulham 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 1.026 / def 1.167 | Fulham attack 1.543 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.069 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Fulham (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Fulham xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Fulham kick off?
Cardiff vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Fulham?
Cardiff 0 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Cardiff vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Fulham part of?
Cardiff vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 20% chance of winning, Fulham a 58% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cardiff and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Fulham?
Record (1 meetings): Cardiff 0W | Draws 0 | Fulham 1W.
What form are Cardiff and Fulham in?
Cardiff (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Fulham (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cardiff's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
20%
4.88
22%
4.55
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.98
1.92
Fulham xG
4.88
20%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
15%
6.85
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
3%
33.42
20%
5.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.92 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Fulham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cardiff come into this having played 32 games, going 10W 5D 17L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 2.09 PPG from 32 outings (20W 7D 5L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Fulham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Cardiff — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cardiff's home form reads 4W 1D 9L across 14 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 2.14 points per game from 14 outings (9W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 2.53 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Fulham in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 10W 5D 17L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while Fulham have gone 20W 7D 5L in their last 32 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Fulham away?
Fulham's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 0.93 PPG; Fulham away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Fulham in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and Fulham runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cardiff
0
Draws
2
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Fulham?
From 2 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 0, Fulham have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2022, when Cardiff 0-1 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 36%, Fulham 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cardiff) and 57% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Fulham in 36%; Cardiff have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Cardiff's recent matches and 57% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cardiff's recent games and 57% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Fulham tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Fulham in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Cardiff 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Cardiff 0-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.06 xG and Fulham 1.92 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cardiff fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Fulham landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.03 / defence 1.17 against Fulham attack 1.54 / defence 0.97, drawn from 33/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 20% | Draw 22% | Fulham 58%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 59%, Fulham 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (32 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fulham's trading profile (32 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.