Cardiff 0-1 Coventry – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs Coventry fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Coventry travel to Cardiff City Stadium to take on Cardiff. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 October 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff's home record at Cardiff City Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Coventry — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Coventry, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Coventry have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Cardiff carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cardiff, 1 for Coventry and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Cardiff winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cardiff trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Coventry trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 46% versus Coventry 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 48% | Coventry 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.20 xG and Coventry 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.858 / defence 0.832 | Coventry attack 0.956 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.055. Data: 59 Cardiff games / 56 Coventry games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 44% | Draw 30% | Coventry 26%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Coventry 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cardiff 40% | Coventry 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Coventry | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 44% | Draw 30% | Coventry 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Cardiff 1.20 / Coventry 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.858 / def 0.832 | Coventry attack 0.956 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Coventry xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Coventry kick off?
Cardiff vs Coventry kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Coventry?
Cardiff 0 - 1 Coventry.
Where is Cardiff vs Coventry being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Coventry part of?
Cardiff vs Coventry is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Coventry?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 44% chance of winning, Coventry a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Coventry?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cardiff and Coventry will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Coventry have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Coventry?
Record (2 meetings): Cardiff 1W | Draws 0 | Coventry 1W.
What form are Cardiff and Coventry in?
Cardiff (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Coventry (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cardiff's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Coventry's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Coventry's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
44%
2.25
30%
3.36
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.04
0.84
Coventry xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
8%
12.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Coventry?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Coventry expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Cardiff and 0.84 for Coventry, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Coventry?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Cardiff have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 19W 9D 28L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coventry's form line: 18W 17D 21L from 56 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-L. The sample for Coventry is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.18 PPG, Coventry on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cardiff have posted 1.25 PPG from 28 outings (10W 5D 13L).
On the road, Coventry have gone 6W 12D 10L from 28 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cardiff are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Coventry are on 1.21 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
Coventry
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Coventry in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 19W 9D 28L in their last 56 games (1.18 PPG), while Coventry have gone 18W 17D 21L in their last 56 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Coventry away?
Cardiff's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.25 PPG; Coventry away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Cardiff's record when hosting Coventry specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cardiff
3
Draws
2
Coventry
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Coventry?
From 8 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 3, Coventry have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Coventry last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2025, when Cardiff 1-1 Coventry.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Coventry?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 36%, Coventry 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Cardiff) and 50% (Coventry).
On the defensive side: Cardiff have failed to score in 43% of games; Coventry in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Coventry away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Coventry?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Cardiff's recent matches and 61% of Coventry's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Coventry usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Cardiff's recent games and 50% of Coventry's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Coventry tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Coventry in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Coventry defy the odds to beat Cardiff 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coventry beat Cardiff 0-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.20 xG and Coventry 0.84 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cardiff fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.86 / defence 0.83 against Coventry attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 59/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 44% | Draw 30% | Coventry 26%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Coventry win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 48%, Coventry 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Coventry's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.18 PPG, Coventry 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coventry win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Coventry (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.